My Macro take on crypto
#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.
Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Some more data that confirms my biases:
- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days
- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.
To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.
Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Some more data that confirms my biases:
- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days
- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.
To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
1 month ago
