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SolenyaResearch

Level 1

3 months ago
๐Ÿ“… **Weekly Outlook Sep 30 - Oct 6** ๐Ÿ“…
Stay updated with key news & events in finance and crypto! ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡

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๐Ÿ“ฐ **News/Sentiment:**
- FED tracking econ data for rate cuts ๐Ÿ“Š
- Neutral stance, less dovish than expected ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ
- Eyes on Sept Jobs, ISM Manufacturing, Jobless Claims ๐Ÿ“ˆ
- Investors expect continued rate lowering ๐Ÿ’ธ
- Goldman: Stocks pricier on ROE premium ๐Ÿ“‰
- BofA forecasts a soft landing ๐ŸŒค๏ธ

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๐Ÿ“… **Events This Week:**

**Monday:**
- ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK: GP
- ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช GER: CPI
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US: Powell Speaks ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ

**Tuesday:**
- ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EUR: Core CPI, CPI
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US: PMI, Fed GDP Now, Job Openings
- ๐Ÿ“ˆ Earnings: NKE ๐Ÿ‘Ÿ

**Wednesday:**
- ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EUR: Unemployment ๐Ÿ“‰

**Thursday:**
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US: Jobless Claims
- ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ CNY: CPI ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

**Friday:**
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US: Labor Participation, Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate ๐Ÿ“Š

---

โš–๏ธ **Risk Appetite:**
- Truflation: 1.5% ๐Ÿ“‰
- Market Fear/Greed: 75 ๐Ÿค‘ Extreme Greed
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed ๐Ÿš€
- Put/Call: Extreme Greed
- Junk Bond vs. Investment Grade: Fear โš ๏ธ
- AAII Sentiment: 3% off 1yr bullish ๐Ÿ“ˆ
- Crypto Fear/Greed: 50 Neutral ๐Ÿช™
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.68% ๐Ÿ”บ
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% ๐Ÿ”บ

---

๐Ÿ“Š **Market Breadth:**
- % of $SPX > 200D MA: 62% โ†”๏ธ
- % of $SPX > 50D MA: 65% โ†”๏ธ
- % of $SPX > 20D MA: 68% โ†”๏ธ
- NASDAQ New Highs - Lows: 57
- SPY 52W Highs - Lows: -44
- SPY New H/L: Monthly 147; Weekly 19 ๐Ÿ“‰

---

๐Ÿ” **Other:**
- Fed Rate Monitor: 30% chance of 50bps, 70% chance of 25bps ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ”ฎ

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Stay informed and make savvy moves this week! ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿš€ #Finance #crypto #MarketUpdate

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SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6:

$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF

Markets just took a turn ๐Ÿ“‰
What happened and where are we going?

Bull over? ๐Ÿ˜ž

Heres what you need to know: ๐Ÿ‘‡

๐ŸšจMarket Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐Ÿ“‰ #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐Ÿ“ˆ #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)

When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.

Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

โ›ฝ๏ธ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up

https://www.tradingview.co.../

โš ๏ธ #btc bulls be very cautious here!

Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.

Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐Ÿ“‰ #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.

2k retest is on the horizon.

https://www.tradingview.co.../
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook: September 2-6 ๐Ÿ“Š

Market News & Sentiment ๐Ÿ“ฐ

- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy ๐Ÿค–- Labor market weakness expected to continue ๐Ÿ’ผ
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September ๐Ÿ“‰
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end ๐Ÿ“Š

Events This Week ๐Ÿ“…

- Monday:
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK Manufacturing PMI ๐Ÿ“Š

- Tuesday:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now ๐Ÿ“Š

- Wednesday:
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EU Composite PMI, Services PMI ๐Ÿ“Š
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ CAD Interest Rate Decision ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Job Openings, Beige Book ๐Ÿ“Š
Earnings: Dollar Tree ๐Ÿ“Š

- Thursday:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet ๐Ÿ“Š

- Friday:
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EU GDP ๐Ÿ“Š
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment ๐Ÿ“Š
Earnings: Kroger ๐Ÿ“Š

Risk Appetite ๐Ÿค”

- Truflation: 1.55% ๐Ÿ”ฅ
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) ๐Ÿ“Š
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed ๐Ÿš€
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral ๐Ÿ“Š
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high ๐Ÿ“ˆ
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) ๐Ÿ˜จ
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) โฌ‡๏ธ
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) โฌ†๏ธ

Market Breadth ๐Ÿ“ˆ

- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) ๐Ÿ“ˆ
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) ๐Ÿ“ˆ
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) ๐Ÿš€
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 ๐Ÿ“Š
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 ๐Ÿ“Š
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 ๐Ÿ“Š

Other ๐Ÿ“Š

- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps ๐Ÿ“Š
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 26-30:

We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:

#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.co... ๐Ÿ“‰

#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.co.../ ๐Ÿ“Š

#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.co.../ ๐Ÿ’ก

#btc traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k . Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.

https://www.tradingview.co.../๐Ÿ™

#eth is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.

https://www.tradingview.co... ๐Ÿšจ
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts ๐Ÿ“Š

News/Sentiment: ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
โ€ข High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
โ€ข Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
โ€ข Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings

Events This Week: ๐Ÿ“…
Mon:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow

Tue:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGER: GDP
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction

Wed:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: 5 year note auction
โ€ข ๐Ÿ’ธ Earnings: NVDA

Thu:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: Jobless claims, GDP
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณCNY: CPI
โ€ข ๐Ÿ’ธ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU

Fri:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บEUR: CPI
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: PCE, Core PCE

Risk Appetite: ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
โ€ข Truflation: 1.47%
โ€ข Market fear/greed = 54
โ€ข Market breadth = extreme greed
โ€ข Put/call = greed
โ€ข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โ€ข AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
โ€ข Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
โ€ข High yield bond premium = 3.21%
โ€ข High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)

Market Breadth: ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
โ€ข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
โ€ข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
โ€ข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59

Other: ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23:

#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.

The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#btc still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#eth is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient

https://www.tradingview.co.../
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
one of the decent memecoins $FOFAR that i have seen on the tron network. Please DYOR

TUFonyWZ4Tza5MzgDj6g2u5rfdGoRVYG7g
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts

News/Sentiment: ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts

โ€ข Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health

โ€ข Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November

โ€ข Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday

โ€ข Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts

Events This Week: ๐Ÿ“…
Mon:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บEUR: CPI, German PPI
โ€ข ๐Ÿ’ธ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)

Tue:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆCAD: CPI
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตJPY: Exports, trade balance
โ€ข ๐Ÿ’ธ Earnings: Lowes $LOW

Wed:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
โ€ข ๐Ÿ’ธ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT

Thu:
โ€ข Global PMI data
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFR: Manufacturing/services PMI
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
โ€ข ๐Ÿ’ธ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR

Fri:
โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data

Risk Appetite: ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
โ€ข Truflation: 1.42%

โ€ข Market fear/greed = 40

โ€ข Market breadth = neutral

โ€ข Put/call = greed

โ€ข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite

โ€ข AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average

โ€ข Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear

โ€ข High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)

โ€ข High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)

Market Breadth: ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)

โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)

โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)

โ€ข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38

โ€ข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80

โ€ข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19

Other: ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
If you are a long term HODL'er look at these statistics. Theres a 52% chance #SPY will finish higher in December, and a 70% chance #SPY will finish higher in Q4.

Chance #btc will follow is quite high due to asset correlations
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 12-19:

#DXY hasnt moved much and is still in a corrective phase before more downside (likely if softening economic data continues).

Target of 97 remains

#SPY is still showing signs of a corrective phase - which is not a bad thing. We had a retest of 200 D MA last week. But a continuation of the correction can bring us to 4800. Labor market and CPI data will play a big factor on whether 200 D MA is broken or not.
https://www.tradingview.co.../

#USOIL still bearish and in a long corrective phase. Weakening labor market data paired with production cuts will continue to lower oil demand globally. Targets remain the same at $61

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Is #btc out of the woodwork yet? Not quite

Last week I posted my macro view on BTC. Lots of data showed evidence of a strong Q4 for BTC. However, we are still only mid Q3. Its quite early and seasonally speaking, there is usually rotation from large caps into smaller caps in August before an abrupt sell off in September. With lots of uncertainty looming about FED rates, elections etc. I think its too soon to suggest we go up only from here on BTC.

On shorter time frames, the corrective phase we entered in spring should be coming to a close. However, is 50k the end of the 'C' wave impulse? Could be anyone's guess. Preferably,I'd like to see bullish divergence before we march higher

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#eth chart looks quite awful. I'd avoid until we have weekly closes back above resistance.

https://www.tradingview.co.../
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

4 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook Aug 12-19:

News/Sentiment:
- Market caution towards jobless claims, retail sales, CPI etc.
- Expectation of continuation of disinflation on CPI on Wednesday but more emphasis on labor market data instead of inflationary data

- Broad concerns over FEDs delayed rate cuts ๐Ÿค”
- Markets closely watching Walmart, and HomeDepot earnings reports
- Evercore base case 6000 SPY EOY ๐Ÿ“ˆ

๐Ÿ“… Events This week:

- Tue:
- ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งUK: Unemployment
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: PPI,
- ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บEUR: Unemployment Rate
- Earnings: Home Depot

- Wed:
- ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งUK: CPI, PPI
- ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บEU: GDP
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: CPI
- ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณCNY: Unemployment, Industrial production

- Thu:

- ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งUK: GDP
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS: Jobless claims, Retail sales, Philly Fed employment, industrial production, inventories
- ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณCNY: CPI
- Earnings: Walmart, Deer&Company

๐Ÿ˜ฌ Risk Appetite:
โ€ข Truflation: 1.5%
โ€ข Market fear/greed = 24 Extreme Fear
โ€ข Market breadth = extreme fear
โ€ข Put/call = extreme fear
โ€ข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โ€ข AAII sentiment: 3% off 1 year bullish average
โ€ข Crypto fear/greed = 25 extreme fear
โ€ข High yield bond premium = 3.49% (large decrease)
โ€ข High yield effective yield = 7.39% (large decrease)

Market Breadth:

โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 50% (Decrease from last week)

โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 42% (Decrease from last week)

โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 25% (decrease from last week)

- NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -46

- SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = -67

- SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 51 ; Weekly 6

Other:
Fed rate monitor tool = 52% probability of 25bps cut, 48% for 50bps cut
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

5 months ago
My Macro take on crypto

#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.

Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.

Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Some more data that confirms my biases:

- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days

- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.

To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

5 months ago
Weekly Outlook Charts: August 5-9:

#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.

Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../

Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐ŸŽฏTarget at 97 remains.

Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..

Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.

The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...

Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../

Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)

However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐ŸŽฏTarget for 3000

As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.

Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.

Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

5 months ago
๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data ๐Ÿ“‰ #GlobalRecession #USMarkets

๐Ÿ˜ฌ News/Sentiment:
โ€ข Fears of global recession
โ€ข US markets slip over weakening economic data
โ€ข Pessimism over Middle east tensions
โ€ข Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
โ€ข 78% probability of 50bps cut in September ๐Ÿ“‰
โ€ข BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
โ€ข Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months ๐Ÿ“Š
โ€ข Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
โ€ข Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
โ€ข Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets ๐Ÿ“‰ #YenDollar #CarryTrades

๐Ÿ“… Events This Week (cont.):

โ€ขTue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP

โ€ขWed: US: Consumer Credit report

โ€ขThu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate

๐Ÿ˜ฌ Risk Appetite:
โ€ข AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
โ€ข Market fear/greed = 19
โ€ข Market breadth = fear
โ€ข Put/call = extreme fear
โ€ข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โ€ข Crypto fear/greed = 26
โ€ขHigh yield bond prem. = 3.72%

๐Ÿ“Š Market Breadth:
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
โ€ข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
โ€ข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
โ€ข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
โ€ข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)
Mello

Level 1

6 months ago (E)
Daily Memecoin Recap - June 16

Metas are all over the place, market lacking creativity

Don't need creativity to print tho

Cat meta comeback $yogi -> hit $1 .4m, "Yogi Cat" $kichi -> hit $1 .1m, CTO, good community $jumpi -> hit $615k , "Jumping Dog" $snipi -> hit $500k , "Sniper Cat" $nochi -> hit $395k

Speculation on WakaFlocka's upcoming coin $flocka -> hit $1 .2m $squad -> hit $950k
- Waka Flocka has not yet confirmed his coin's CA

Andrew Tate meta $mcga -> hit $7 .8m, make crypto great again.

Back to business tomorrow

Are you in the right circle?
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

6 months ago
Weekly Outlook June 17-19: ๐Ÿ“Š

News/Sentiment:

- Industrial output in china lagged expectations in May, june rate cut likely to ease property market slump ๐Ÿ 
- Chinese wealth rush offshore for better investment opportunities in Hong Kong and Macau (3 B inflows in April) ๐Ÿ’ธ
- KashKari Fed President expects a rate cut once, potentially in December. Emphasis on inflation and economic data ๐Ÿ“Š
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

6 months ago
If you think you missed $GME heres a good opportunity to buyback, accumulate, or average down.

Likely get a nice bounce prior to June 21st

$GME https://www.tradingview.co.../

$GMEonSOL

https://www.tradingview.co.../

$KITTY
https://www.tradingview.co.../

Most bullish on $GMEonSOL because it has the largest community, did $550m 24 hr volume on livestream day and good token distribution
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

6 months ago (E)
๐ŸŒŸ Weekly Outlook Charts: June 10-14 ๐ŸŒŸ
$DXY strong rally off employment data, but revisions & FED rate cut decisions may impact. Resistance at 105-106; a close above invalidates my forecast. Central banks easing policies could push $DXY down. ๐Ÿ’ฒ

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐Ÿ“ˆ $SPY facing daily bearish divergence, but no fundamental changes for trend reversal. 5600 target remains. ๐Ÿ“ˆ

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐ŸŽข $USOIL strong rally, but downside potential remains. ๐Ÿ’ก

https://www.tradingview.co.../
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

6 months ago
If you think you missed $GME heres a good opportunity to buyback, accumulate, or average down.

Likely get a nice bounce prior to June 21st

$GME https://www.tradingview.co.../

$GMEonSOL

https://www.tradingview.co.../

$KITTY
https://www.tradingview.co.../

Most bullish on $GMEonSOL because it has the largest community, did $550m 24 hr volume on livestream day and good token distribution
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

6 months ago
Weekly Outlook June 10-14:

๐ŸšจLarge amount of economic data this week. Expect volatility.๐Ÿšจ

News/Sentiment:
- Market is looking forward to CPI, PPI and FOMC๐Ÿ“ˆ
- high importance on FOMC on Wednesday and the post meeting statement๐Ÿ‘€
- Goldman Sachs are anticipating the first rate cut in September๐Ÿ’ฐ
- Markets anticipating a drop in UK jobs leading to BoE starting its rate cutting cycle๐Ÿ“ˆ
- Asia markets cautioned over BoJ reducing QE๐Ÿ’ผ
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

6 months ago (E)
๐ŸŒŸ Weekly Outlook Charts: June 10-14 ๐ŸŒŸ
$DXY strong rally off employment data, but revisions & FED rate cut decisions may impact. Resistance at 105-106; a close above invalidates my forecast. Central banks easing policies could push $DXY down. ๐Ÿ’ฒ

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐Ÿ“ˆ $SPY facing daily bearish divergence, but no fundamental changes for trend reversal. 5600 target remains. ๐Ÿ“ˆ

https://www.tradingview.co.../

๐ŸŽข $USOIL strong rally, but downside potential remains. ๐Ÿ’ก

https://www.tradingview.co.../
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

7 months ago (E)
๐Ÿšจ$SEI Alert!๐Ÿšจ

$SEI on the verge of a breakout after half a year of consolidation. The longer the base, the higher in Space! ๐Ÿš€๐ŸŒŒ

First target: $1 .40 ๐ŸŽฏ
Second target: $1 .75 ๐ŸŽฏ

TradingView link: https://www.tradingview.co.../
SolenyaResearch

Level 1

7 months ago
hello world!