1 month ago
π Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data π #GlobalRecession #USMarkets
π¬ News/Sentiment:
β’ Fears of global recession
β’ US markets slip over weakening economic data
β’ Pessimism over Middle east tensions
β’ Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
β’ 78% probability of 50bps cut in September π
β’ BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
β’ Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months π
β’ Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
β’ Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
β’ Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets π #YenDollar #CarryTrades
π Events This Week (cont.):
β’Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP
β’Wed: US: Consumer Credit report
β’Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate
π¬ Risk Appetite:
β’ AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
β’ Market fear/greed = 19
β’ Market breadth = fear
β’ Put/call = extreme fear
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 26
β’High yield bond prem. = 3.72%
π Market Breadth:
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data π #GlobalRecession #USMarkets
π¬ News/Sentiment:
β’ Fears of global recession
β’ US markets slip over weakening economic data
β’ Pessimism over Middle east tensions
β’ Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
β’ 78% probability of 50bps cut in September π
β’ BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
β’ Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months π
β’ Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
β’ Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
β’ Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets π #YenDollar #CarryTrades
π Events This Week (cont.):
β’Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP
β’Wed: US: Consumer Credit report
β’Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate
π¬ Risk Appetite:
β’ AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
β’ Market fear/greed = 19
β’ Market breadth = fear
β’ Put/call = extreme fear
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 26
β’High yield bond prem. = 3.72%
π Market Breadth:
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)
