📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6:

$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF

Markets just took a turn 📉
What happened and where are we going?

Bull over? 😞

Heres what you need to know: 👇

🚨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📉 #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📈 #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)

When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.

Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

⛽️ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up

https://www.tradingview.co.../

⚠️ #btc bulls be very cautious here!

Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.

Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📉 #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.

2k retest is on the horizon.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 26-30:

We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:

#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.co... 📉

#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.co.../ 📊

#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.co.../ 💡

#btc traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k . Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.

https://www.tradingview.co.../🙏

#eth is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.

https://www.tradingview.co... 🚨

📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23:

#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.

The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#btc still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#eth is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Weekly Outlook Charts: August 5-9:

#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.

Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../

Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎯Target at 97 remains.

Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..

Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.

The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...

Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../

Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)

However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎯Target for 3000

As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.

Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.

Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market

DXY (DOLLAR) 🇺🇸

The bane since last Wednesday during the last FOMC!

And yes, the FED has really hampered our plans.

For the moment cryptos are under great bearish pressure from the FOMC. But the S&P500 and NASDAQ are holding up. But be careful because if they start to correct it, we'll pay twice as much.

Afterwards, we can decorrelate this summer thanks to the ETH SPOT ETF but not sure...

So yes I am Bullish in the medium and long term as explained in previous tweets but in the short term I don't like it at all.

So do you think you'll see a Bull or Bear summer?

🌟 Weekly Outlook Charts: June 10-14 🌟
$DXY strong rally off employment data, but revisions & FED rate cut decisions may impact. Resistance at 105-106; a close above invalidates my forecast. Central banks easing policies could push $DXY down. 💲

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📈 $SPY facing daily bearish divergence, but no fundamental changes for trend reversal. 5600 target remains. 📈

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎢 $USOIL strong rally, but downside potential remains. 💡

https://www.tradingview.co.../

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