📅 **Weekly Outlook Sep 30 - Oct 6** 📅
Stay updated with key news & events in finance and crypto! 🧵👇

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📰 **News/Sentiment:**
- FED tracking econ data for rate cuts 📊
- Neutral stance, less dovish than expected 🕊️
- Eyes on Sept Jobs, ISM Manufacturing, Jobless Claims 📈
- Investors expect continued rate lowering 💸
- Goldman: Stocks pricier on ROE premium 📉
- BofA forecasts a soft landing 🌤️

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📅 **Events This Week:**

**Monday:**
- 🇬🇧 UK: GP
- 🇩🇪 GER: CPI
- 🇺🇸 US: Powell Speaks 🎙️

**Tuesday:**
- 🇪🇺 EUR: Core CPI, CPI
- 🇺🇸 US: PMI, Fed GDP Now, Job Openings
- 📈 Earnings: NKE 👟

**Wednesday:**
- 🇪🇺 EUR: Unemployment 📉

**Thursday:**
- 🇺🇸 US: Jobless Claims
- 🇨🇳 CNY: CPI 🇨🇳

**Friday:**
- 🇺🇸 US: Labor Participation, Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate 📊

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⚖️ **Risk Appetite:**
- Truflation: 1.5% 📉
- Market Fear/Greed: 75 🤑 Extreme Greed
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed 🚀
- Put/Call: Extreme Greed
- Junk Bond vs. Investment Grade: Fear ⚠️
- AAII Sentiment: 3% off 1yr bullish 📈
- Crypto Fear/Greed: 50 Neutral 🪙
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.68% 🔺
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% 🔺

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📊 **Market Breadth:**
- % of $SPX > 200D MA: 62% ↔️
- % of $SPX > 50D MA: 65% ↔️
- % of $SPX > 20D MA: 68% ↔️
- NASDAQ New Highs - Lows: 57
- SPY 52W Highs - Lows: -44
- SPY New H/L: Monthly 147; Weekly 19 📉

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🔍 **Other:**
- Fed Rate Monitor: 30% chance of 50bps, 70% chance of 25bps 📉🔮

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Stay informed and make savvy moves this week! 💰🚀 #Finance #crypto #MarketUpdate

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📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6:

$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF

Markets just took a turn 📉
What happened and where are we going?

Bull over? 😞

Heres what you need to know: 👇

🚨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📉 #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📈 #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)

When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.

Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

⛽️ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up

https://www.tradingview.co.../

⚠️ #btc bulls be very cautious here!

Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.

Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📉 #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.

2k retest is on the horizon.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📊 Weekly Outlook: September 2-6 📊

Market News & Sentiment 📰

- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy 🤖- Labor market weakness expected to continue 💼
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 🗣️
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September 📉
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end 📊

Events This Week 📅

- Monday:
🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing PMI 📊

- Tuesday:
🇺🇸 US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now 📊

- Wednesday:
🇪🇺 EU Composite PMI, Services PMI 📊
🇨🇦 CAD Interest Rate Decision 📈
🇺🇸 US Job Openings, Beige Book 📊
Earnings: Dollar Tree 📊

- Thursday:
🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet 📊

- Friday:
🇪🇺 EU GDP 📊
🇺🇸 US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment 📊
Earnings: Kroger 📊

Risk Appetite 🤔

- Truflation: 1.55% 🔥
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) 📊
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed 🚀
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral 📊
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear 😬
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high 📈
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) 😨
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) ⬇️
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) ⬆️

Market Breadth 📈

- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) 📈
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) 📈
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) 🚀
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 📊
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 📊
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 📊

Other 📊

- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps 📊

📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 26-30:

We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:

#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.co... 📉

#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.co.../ 📊

#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.co.../ 💡

#btc traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k . Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.

https://www.tradingview.co.../🙏

#eth is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.

https://www.tradingview.co... 🚨

📊 Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts 📊

News/Sentiment: 📊
• Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
• High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
• Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
• Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings

Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇺🇸US: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow

Tue:
• 🇩🇪GER: GDP
• 🇺🇸US: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction

Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: 5 year note auction
• 💸 Earnings: NVDA

Thu:
• 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, GDP
• 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
• 💸 Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU

Fri:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI
• 🇺🇸US: PCE, Core PCE

Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.47%
• Market fear/greed = 54
• Market breadth = extreme greed
• Put/call = greed
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
• Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
• High yield bond premium = 3.21%
• High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)

Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59

Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut

📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23:

#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.

The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#btc still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here

https://www.tradingview.co.../

#eth is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📊 Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts

News/Sentiment: 📊
• Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts

• Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health

• Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November

• Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday

• Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts

Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI, German PPI
• 💸 Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)

Tue:
• 🇨🇦CAD: CPI
• 🇯🇵JPY: Exports, trade balance
• 💸 Earnings: Lowes $LOW

Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
• 💸 Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT

Thu:
• Global PMI data
• 🇫🇷FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 🇩🇪GER: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 💸 Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR

Fri:
• 🇺🇸US: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data

Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.42%

• Market fear/greed = 40

• Market breadth = neutral

• Put/call = greed

• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite

• AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average

• Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear

• High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)

• High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)

Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)

• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38

• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80

• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19

Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut

Daily Memecoin Recap - August 7

Volume starting to pick up as $btc , $sol recover

Runners Of The Day
$btw -> $1 .6m to $15 .6m (9.75x), banana taped to a wall, after pulling back yesterday, reached new ATH's today, good community
$nani -> hit $3m , KOLs in, dog meme
$minion -> hit $2 .8m, "Jesus Minion Confessions", unique concept where they post people's confessions
$chango -> hit $2 .3m, monkey with a machine gun
$jajak -> hit $1 .4m, funny meme
$tt -> hit $1m , "Thumb Thumb", spy kids meme

Insider Trump Coin
$twc -> hit $5 .5m, "Trumpwifcrown"
- Speculation that this was Trump's coin after Eric Trump's tweet saying "Stay tuned for a big announcement"
- Heavily sniped with insane volume, currently at $50k
- Plenty of smart wallets aped

Kamala Harris Announces Her VP Pick
$coconut -> $5m to $11 .3m (2.26x), KamalaHarris
, cult community, new ATH
$walz -> $315k to $2m (6.35x), based on Tim_Walz

Dog Meta
$wDOG -> $12m to $26m (2.16x), wrapped dog, currently retracing
$bicho -> $93k to $1 .8m (19x), coin out since June but heavily pushed today, $michi beta
$drc -> hit $995k , "Dog Riding Chicken", CTO
$pitbull -> hit $720k
$pooku -> hit $645k , CTO
$borf -> hit $475k , cartoon dog
$waffles -> hit $220k

Cat Meta
$neo -> hit $1 .8m, "The one", cat + matrix
$apple -> hit $340k , a cat with an apple
$icd -> hit $250k , "International Cat Day" is today

Other Cooks
$fiat -> hit $500k
$sheep -> hit $465k , same dev as $goat which peaked at $45m
$slog -> hit $370k , snail meme
$rockstar -> hit $240k , rock shaped like a star

What did you catch?

📊 Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data 📉 #GlobalRecession #USMarkets

😬 News/Sentiment:
• Fears of global recession
• US markets slip over weakening economic data
• Pessimism over Middle east tensions
• Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
• 78% probability of 50bps cut in September 📉
• BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
• Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months 📊
• Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
• Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
• Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets 📉 #YenDollar #CarryTrades

📅 Events This Week (cont.):

•Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP

•Wed: US: Consumer Credit report

•Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate

😬 Risk Appetite:
• AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
• Market fear/greed = 19
• Market breadth = fear
• Put/call = extreme fear
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• Crypto fear/greed = 26
•High yield bond prem. = 3.72%

📊 Market Breadth:
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)

🌟 Weekly Outlook Charts: June 10-14 🌟
$DXY strong rally off employment data, but revisions & FED rate cut decisions may impact. Resistance at 105-106; a close above invalidates my forecast. Central banks easing policies could push $DXY down. 💲

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📈 $SPY facing daily bearish divergence, but no fundamental changes for trend reversal. 5600 target remains. 📈

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎢 $USOIL strong rally, but downside potential remains. 💡

https://www.tradingview.co.../