π Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts π
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
β’ High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
β’ Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
β’ Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
β’ π©πͺGER: GDP
β’ πΊπΈUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: 5 year note auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Jobless claims, GDP
β’ π¨π³CNY: CPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI
β’ πΊπΈUS: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.47%
β’ Market fear/greed = 54
β’ Market breadth = extreme greed
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.21%
β’ High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts π
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
β’ High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
β’ Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
β’ Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
β’ π©πͺGER: GDP
β’ πΊπΈUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: 5 year note auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Jobless claims, GDP
β’ π¨π³CNY: CPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI
β’ πΊπΈUS: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.47%
β’ Market fear/greed = 54
β’ Market breadth = extreme greed
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.21%
β’ High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
5 months ago
