📊 Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts

News/Sentiment: 📊
• Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts

• Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health

• Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November

• Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday

• Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts

Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI, German PPI
• 💸 Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)

Tue:
• 🇨🇦CAD: CPI
• 🇯🇵JPY: Exports, trade balance
• 💸 Earnings: Lowes $LOW

Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
• 💸 Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT

Thu:
• Global PMI data
• 🇫🇷FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 🇩🇪GER: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 💸 Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR

Fri:
• 🇺🇸US: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data

Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.42%

• Market fear/greed = 40

• Market breadth = neutral

• Put/call = greed

• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite

• AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average

• Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear

• High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)

• High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)

Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)

• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38

• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80

• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19

Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut