π Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
β’ Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
β’ Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
β’ Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
β’ Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI, German PPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
β’ π¨π¦CAD: CPI
β’ π―π΅JPY: Exports, trade balance
β’ πΈ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
β’ Global PMI data
β’ π«π·FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ π©πͺGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.42%
β’ Market fear/greed = 40
β’ Market breadth = neutral
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
β’ AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
β’ High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
β’ Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
β’ Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
β’ Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
β’ Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI, German PPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
β’ π¨π¦CAD: CPI
β’ π―π΅JPY: Exports, trade balance
β’ πΈ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
β’ Global PMI data
β’ π«π·FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ π©πͺGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.42%
β’ Market fear/greed = 40
β’ Market breadth = neutral
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
β’ AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
β’ High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
4 months ago
