Weekly Outlook Charts: August 5-9:
#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../
Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target at 97 remains.
Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..
Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.
The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...
Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)
However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target for 3000
As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../
Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target at 97 remains.
Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..
Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.
The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...
Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)
However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target for 3000
As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
DXY Weekly Down for TVC:DXY by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/LDxbqwgW-DXY-Weekly-Down/
1 month ago
1 month ago
In response SolenyaResearch to his Publication
What does this mean for markets?...
There is more evidence of a recession on the horizon (falling DXY, yield curve re-inversion, Sahm Rule). The current outlook is not great for 2025.
However the Sahm Rule and the past 2 yield curve re-inversions sheds some light on some upside on markets by the end of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic in the coming months.
#SPY After hitting the target of 5600, we peaked just days later. Whether this correciton is over or not depends on how it holds the 200D MA at 5048. Bullish divergence on the Daily suggest a trend reversal for more upside. The VIX experienced a 7 sigma event suggests correction probably over as well.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯New Target at 6000
#USOIL being a weather bell for global economic growth, oil prices are showing similar fractals to DXY. Nothing much changed since last weekly outlook. No divergences suggest no reversal of trends yet.
🎯Target still remains at 61$ a barrel
https://www.tradingview.co.../
There is more evidence of a recession on the horizon (falling DXY, yield curve re-inversion, Sahm Rule). The current outlook is not great for 2025.
However the Sahm Rule and the past 2 yield curve re-inversions sheds some light on some upside on markets by the end of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic in the coming months.
#SPY After hitting the target of 5600, we peaked just days later. Whether this correciton is over or not depends on how it holds the 200D MA at 5048. Bullish divergence on the Daily suggest a trend reversal for more upside. The VIX experienced a 7 sigma event suggests correction probably over as well.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯New Target at 6000
#USOIL being a weather bell for global economic growth, oil prices are showing similar fractals to DXY. Nothing much changed since last weekly outlook. No divergences suggest no reversal of trends yet.
🎯Target still remains at 61$ a barrel
https://www.tradingview.co.../
SPY end of year outlook for OANDA:SPX500USD by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
After hitting the target of 5600, we peaked just days later. Whether this correciton is over or not depends on how it holds the 200D MA at 5048. Bullish divergence on the Daily suggest a trend reversal for more upside. The VIX experienced a 7 sigma event suggests its probably over as well.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/y8M0XrXN-SPY-end-of-year-outlook/
