📊 Weekly Outlook Aug 12-19:

News/Sentiment:
- Market caution towards jobless claims, retail sales, CPI etc.
- Expectation of continuation of disinflation on CPI on Wednesday but more emphasis on labor market data instead of inflationary data

- Broad concerns over FEDs delayed rate cuts 🤔
- Markets closely watching Walmart, and HomeDepot earnings reports
- Evercore base case 6000 SPY EOY 📈

📅 Events This week:

- Tue:
- 🇬🇧UK: Unemployment
- 🇺🇸US: PPI,
- 🇪🇺EUR: Unemployment Rate
- Earnings: Home Depot

- Wed:
- 🇬🇧UK: CPI, PPI
- 🇪🇺EU: GDP
- 🇺🇸US: CPI
- 🇨🇳CNY: Unemployment, Industrial production

- Thu:

- 🇬🇧UK: GDP
- 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, Retail sales, Philly Fed employment, industrial production, inventories
- 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
- Earnings: Walmart, Deer&Company

😬 Risk Appetite:
• Truflation: 1.5%
• Market fear/greed = 24 Extreme Fear
• Market breadth = extreme fear
• Put/call = extreme fear
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 3% off 1 year bullish average
• Crypto fear/greed = 25 extreme fear
• High yield bond premium = 3.49% (large decrease)
• High yield effective yield = 7.39% (large decrease)

Market Breadth:

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 50% (Decrease from last week)

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 42% (Decrease from last week)

• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 25% (decrease from last week)

- NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -46

- SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = -67

- SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 51 ; Weekly 6

Other:
Fed rate monitor tool = 52% probability of 25bps cut, 48% for 50bps cut