1 month ago
π¨ BREAKING: The odds of #DonaldTrump πΊπΈ winning the presidential election are BACK up to almost 50%, according to Polymarket data βΌοΈπ
1 month ago
My Macro take on crypto
#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.
Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Some more data that confirms my biases:
- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days
- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.
To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.
Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Some more data that confirms my biases:
- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days
- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.
To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
2 months ago
π Nearly $1 .5 billion in tokens will be released in August, including $609 million in XRP.
πΉ Avalanche: $268 million
πΉ Wormhole: $180 .5 million
πΉ Sui: $50 million
πΉ dYdX: $11 million
πΉ ZetaChain: $34 .5 million
πΉ ImmutableX: $49 million
πΉ Aptos: $80 million
πΉ The Sandbox: $69 million
πΉ Starkent: $35 million
πΉ Arbitrum: $67 million
πΉ Avalanche: $268 million
πΉ Wormhole: $180 .5 million
πΉ Sui: $50 million
πΉ dYdX: $11 million
πΉ ZetaChain: $34 .5 million
πΉ ImmutableX: $49 million
πΉ Aptos: $80 million
πΉ The Sandbox: $69 million
πΉ Starkent: $35 million
πΉ Arbitrum: $67 million
2 months ago
Itβs wild how whenever a man stands up against the most powerful establishments and cartels on planet earth a βlone crazy gunmanβ with no links to any of those establishments tries to blast him.
#RobertFico #DonaldTrump
#RobertFico #DonaldTrump
2 months ago
3 months ago
π¨ The SEC reportedly returned Form S-1 to potential Spot Ethereum ETF issuers with only a few comments.
Issuers will need to process these comments and resubmit them by July 8.
This means that at least one additional round of deposits will be required before the ETF finally begins trading.
https://www.theblock.co/po...
Issuers will need to process these comments and resubmit them by July 8.
This means that at least one additional round of deposits will be required before the ETF finally begins trading.
https://www.theblock.co/po...
5 months ago
(E)
Welcome to the BaseWifFace Official Bullverse Account!
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Website: https://basewifface.com
X: https://twitter.com/basewi...
Telegram: https://t.me/basewifface
Buy on Uniswap: https://app.uniswap.org
Contract: 0x18dd0cbc659347749480F5732683A7DF5c44c6cd
