4 months ago
Spent 8h in there, and he will be fine. Got antibiotic prescription to prevent all of the wounds from infection. Moreover its gonna cause the remaining spikes leave his body.
Also he hasnt broke his finger just sprained it.
Thank you Bulls for ur support ♥️
Reminder: Dont do stupid stuff after alcohol, or any other drugs 😂
Also he hasnt broke his finger just sprained it.
Thank you Bulls for ur support ♥️
Reminder: Dont do stupid stuff after alcohol, or any other drugs 😂
4 months ago
My Macro take on crypto
#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.
Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Some more data that confirms my biases:
- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days
- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.
To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.
Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Some more data that confirms my biases:
- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days
- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.
To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.
4 months ago
Weekly Outlook Charts: August 5-9:
#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../
Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target at 97 remains.
Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..
Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.
The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...
Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)
However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target for 3000
As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../
Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target at 97 remains.
Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..
Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.
The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...
Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)
However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.
#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
🎯Target for 3000
As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
DXY Weekly Down for TVC:DXY by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/LDxbqwgW-DXY-Weekly-Down/
6 months ago
GM Bullverse, PengyOS doesnt stop with Solana Mobile.🐧💫
The APK file will shorty be released to all Android holders as well.
Sneak Peek of the App on Chrome OS? You got it!✨🐧
The APK file will shorty be released to all Android holders as well.
Sneak Peek of the App on Chrome OS? You got it!✨🐧
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