Qcp Reports That Harris Is Gaining Traction In The Debate, While The Market Remains Cautious About Interest Rate Cuts

QCP highlighted that the recent debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has garnered significant attention this week. With support from Taylor Swift, Harris has seen her chances of winning rise above 50%, according to Polymarket data.

Crypto markets have suffered noticeable pullbacks following September 10’s highly anticipated presidential debate.

In the wake of self-proclaimed ‘Crypto President’ Donald Trump’s performance, scales have tipped in favor of Kamala Harris, with prediction markets illustrating renewed support for the Democrats.

Crypto Markets Tumble as Republican Confidence Wanes
The presidential debate had a resounding effect on the digital asset market. Following the event, $SOL price has dropped 5.1%, sliding from September 10’s high of $137 .9 to currently trade hands at $130 .84.

Beyond asset prices, CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index also dropped from a neutral 46.72 to a fearful ranking of 31.6.

The crypto market’s slide is expected to be due to the wider industry’s assumption that a Trump presidency will be favorable for the blockchain industry.

Commentators argue that Trump’s pro-crypto stance will greatly benefit the sector, with many analysts proposing that the approval of a spot SOL ETF hinges on a Republican victory. Meanwhile, some Solana community members expressed that regardless of who emerges triumphant in November, it will make little difference.

Over the past four years, the Biden administration has loomed large over the crypto industry. Gary Gensler and the S.E.C. (Securities and Exchanges Commission) have been widely criticized by the crypto community for their regulation-by-enforcement approach, which has seen the agency hand out a litany of lawsuits to crypto businesses throughout its time in office.

Volume Spikes on Drift Protocol’s Prediction Market
While Trump and Harris clashed heads on camera, traders took their chance to hit the prediction markets. Drift Protocol’s BET platform, a marketplace enabling users to trade the outcomes of real-world events, enjoyed an impressive surge of trading volume during the debate.

According to Dune Analytics, Drift Protocol’s BET protocol witnessed over $851k in daily trading volume. While falling short of market leader PolyMarket’s $14M daily volume, BET’s dramatic volume spike represented a 1,287% increase over the previous day’s trading.

According to BET’s dedicated market, Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election dropped from 54.2% to 49.5% since the debate began.

$TREMP Down, $KAMA Up
Finally, the landmark debate sent waves of volatility through Solana’s PolitiFi memecoin economy.

Unfortunately for $TREMP holders, crypto markets rejected the Presidential hopeful’s debate performance. $TREMP price crumbled under increased selling pressure, plunging 28% from.19 to currently exchange hands at.135, based on Step Finance data.

Meanwhile, the Kamala Harris-inspired $KAMA saw renewed support. $KAMA surged over 34%, rising from 0.007 to currently trade at.0094. Despite $KAMA’s superior performance, the memecoin still has a smaller market cap ($8.3M) than its PolitiFi rival $TREMP ($14.2M).

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💸 Users of Polymarket estimate that there is a 77% chance that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting scheduled for September 17-18

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BTC, there were minimal trading volumes over the weekend and this weekend. Tomorrow is a whole day off in the USA and the volumes may not be large either. Bitcoin is still near the local support zone. Let me remind you that this zone is 57,600-55,900. Bitcoin continues to trade inside the medium-term pattern. And in this case, the key zone and level for reaching the upper limit of this pattern is the level of 60,000 and 64,000. After the breakdown of the pattern, a new round of growth of this cycle will begin.

withdrawal from exchanges exceeds input - 7%, 1,000 btc❗️

Altcoins, the accumulation continues. The market also gives many a chance to enter at an affordable price. But it is more likely that the next month will change the situation. The growth of altcoins in the near term will be significant.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

BTC, Bitcoin's local setup is still holding, holding the local support zone. But still, now the main movement is following a medium-term setup, a medium-term pattern. Now the price is just below the middle of this pattern and below 60,000, there has been no consolidation below. The bulls have literally several days to return the level of 60,000 and go above the local resistance zone. Also, the local key zone is 62,000, where there is an open level. Let me remind you that many major players and traders are waiting for September 11th. US inflation data, which can be used to predict a future rate cut on September 18. Two key days in September! There is minimal time left. A market reversal is more than likely to occur during these dates. But don't expect that one candle will reach the highs in one hour! The altseason is 21 years old, the main part of altcoins went to the historical max. 8 months. And a number of other altcoins were moving towards a historical maximum of +-16 months (for example, LUNA). On this squiz, the whales actively bought Bitcoins and took them off the exchanges while the paper snot whined and sold their bitcoins.

the withdrawal from the exchanges exceeds the input - 40%, 17,000 btc

Altcoins, the month of September will be key, an additional set of altcoins will be closer to September 11th. It is on the dogosrok-the average day. The turnaround will be fast and many will bite their elbows. But there is still time and perhaps one of the last chances. Let me remind you that we are at the beginning of a new cycle!

https://www.tradingview.co.../

📊 Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts 📊

News/Sentiment: 📊
• Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
• High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
• Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
• Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings

Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇺🇸US: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow

Tue:
• 🇩🇪GER: GDP
• 🇺🇸US: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction

Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: 5 year note auction
• 💸 Earnings: NVDA

Thu:
• 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, GDP
• 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
• 💸 Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU

Fri:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI
• 🇺🇸US: PCE, Core PCE

Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.47%
• Market fear/greed = 54
• Market breadth = extreme greed
• Put/call = greed
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
• Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
• High yield bond premium = 3.21%
• High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)

Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59

Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut

❌️ Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says Solana spot ETF approval was close to 0 in 2024.

"Near zero chance in 2024 and if Harris wins, there is also a near zero chance in 2025."

"Only hope is if Trump wins."

https://x.com/ericbalchuna...

GlobaVTS, last night there was an attempt to break through the local resistance zone, which I wrote about earlier in the post. This is 60 000- 62 634 . There was a breakdown, but the fix will no longer be higher. But there is a chance to close the current daily candle above the 60,000 level. Locally, Bitcoin is trading between local support and local resistance - this is a local flat. Tomorrow there will be a report by Jerome Powell of the US Federal Reserve, MM manipulation is possible during the day. The local setup in the post dated August 20 is relevant.

withdrawal from exchanges exceeds input - correlation

Altcoins, yesterday many people noticed how altcoins were added at the moment. That's because there was an increase in Bitcoin in place with the growth of Altcoin Dominance, it increased quite a bit, but it was already very noticeable in numbers. Altcoin recruitment, no more than a month left. Maybe a little more. Many who wait below will remain observers in this cycle, which has just begun. And we are waiting for a significant growth in altcoins. It is clear that some altcoins have already shown significant growth in the medium-term pump, and will not show it in the altseason. Our porphyry will give a significant increase.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

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Eric Balchunas an ETF analyst stated that Solana ETF filings never made it past Step 2, as the SEC failed to acknowledge them, leading exchanges to withdraw their
19b-4s

—a "snowball's chance in hell" of approval without a leadership change.

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It's a problem for #Bitcoin :

The chances of Donald Trump becoming President of the United States 🇺🇸 have considerably DECREASED up to 51% today!!️ 👀

Since Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and Kamala Harris took over, Donald Trump has dropped in the polls all the time

Will he be able to regain the advantage over the elections? 🤔

Weekly Outlook Charts: August 5-9:

#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.

Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../

Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎯Target at 97 remains.

Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..

Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.

The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...

Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../

Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)

However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎯Target for 3000

As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.

Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.

Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market

📊 Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data 📉 #GlobalRecession #USMarkets

😬 News/Sentiment:
• Fears of global recession
• US markets slip over weakening economic data
• Pessimism over Middle east tensions
• Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
• 78% probability of 50bps cut in September 📉
• BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
• Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months 📊
• Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
• Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
• Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets 📉 #YenDollar #CarryTrades

📅 Events This Week (cont.):

•Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP

•Wed: US: Consumer Credit report

•Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate

😬 Risk Appetite:
• AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
• Market fear/greed = 19
• Market breadth = fear
• Put/call = extreme fear
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• Crypto fear/greed = 26
•High yield bond prem. = 3.72%

📊 Market Breadth:
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)

🤬 Suspicious breakdown among brokers during the stock market crash!

14,000 Schwab users affected “by chance” when the market collapses?

Fidelity also affected “by coincidence”?

So we prevent small investors from selling? 🤔

BTC, the upward medium-term trend has been broken, it will be fixed today. But it is already clearly visible that it will be. Only the pattern remains of the medium-term movement, see the chart. This pattern is bullish! Within this pattern, the corrections were 22-25%. Tonight, it has already peaked at the last touch at 25%. At the moment, from the point of view of technical analysis, nothing terrible has happened. Correction within the pattern from the upper border to the lower one. And globally, Bitcoin is still in an upward movement for the long term. 3 Uptrend, from the bottom. Bearing this in mind, the correction occurred at low volumes. The rebound will be significant, at least inside the pattern. His first target is at least 57,000.

withdrawal from exchanges exceeds input - correlation
Small volumes!

Altcoins, against the background of the correction of Bitcoin with the growth of its dominance, Altcoins sank significantly. And many have come to the lower level of the crypto currency flat, which is more than two years old. This is a strong enough support, and such a chance should be used. Which is exactly what I'm going to do.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Daily Memecoin Recap - July 21

Great volume today as $sol reaches $185

Plenty of metas emerged

Elon Musk Changes His Profile Pic
$dmaga -> hit $76m , "Dark MAGA", Elon's new pfp was made by the people behind this coin, plenty of whales involved
$darkelon -> hit $3 .6m, @elonmusk 's new pfp has a dark filter
$laser -> hit $3 .3m, "Laser Eyes"
- Elon's new pfp is him with a dark filter and laser eyes
- $dmaga drained a lot of liquidity from the market

Betas Emerge from Dark MAGA
$lmaga -> hit $330k , "Light MAGA"
$dpepe -> hit $313k , "Dark Pepe"

Joe Biden Withdraws From Presidential Election
$boden -> $17 .8m to $5 .48m (-69%), down 99%+ from All Time High, redacted JoeBiden

$joever -> $520k to $2 .88m (5.53x), "It's Joever"
$byeden -> hit $1 .4m

Kamala Harris Coins
$kama -> $10 .15m to $30 .5m (3x), redacted KamalaHarris

$kto -> hit $1 .8m, "Kamala Take Over", Kamala + CTO wordplay
$cumala -> hit $1 .2m, "Cumala Whoris"
$KaBooty -> hit $349k

Mini Breaks ATH
$mini -> $1 .9m to $32 .8m (17.3x from the low)
$bigi -> $6k to $1 .69m (281x), mini derivative, was a dead coin that got CTO'd & onboarded some KOLs

Zoomer Memes
$trench -> $115k to $1 .15m (10x), "The Trenches"
$chance -> hit $320k , "Take A Chance", popular sentence on twitter

Popcat Is The First Cat Meme To hit $1b MC
$popcat -> hit 1.02b

Cat Memes
$ily -> $52k to $3 .5m (67x), CTO, cute cat
$mew -> $293m to $684m (2.33x), finally broke a recent high
$baba -> hit $858k , small cat
$mavis -> hit $410k , tiktok cat
$jamie -> hit $360k
$beami -> hit $310k

Dog Memes
$billy -> $93m to $224m (2.4x), continues to make new ATH's
$popdog -> $1m to $6 .3m (6.3x), $popcat derivative
$ray -> hit $2 .1m, CTO
$boo -> hit $1 .4m, hyped launch

More Cooks
$mother -> $27 .7m to $90 .2m (3.25x), IGGYAZALEA
still putting in work
$bear -> $7 .2m to $23 .6m (3.27x), new ATH
$autism -> $4 .14m to $7 .38m (1.78x)
$ethereum -> hit $3 .5m, "Ethereum On Solana"
$alpha -> hit $950k , CTO, pushed by KOLs on twitter
$down -> hit $455k
$hawkptah -> hit $446k , based on elonmusk's tweet
$nuts -> hit $430k
$larry -> hit $286k , Based on Larry Fink (CEO of BlackRock)

This week is looking like it's going to be VERY good

If majors continue to pump, there's going to be more quality launches

If you weren't locked in before, now's your chance 🔒

Solana Co-founder Aeyakovenko says that:

"without Polymarket, there is a chance that the BS polls like 538 would have buried the truth. This is truly the first crypto election"

Joe Biden endorses his VP Kamala Harris as the democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election

chances that she becomes the nominee surpasses 80% on Poly Market.

You need to surround yourself with brave men if you want to have a chance at success

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at Vaneck, says

"I think the odds are 80%+ that Trump wins. And then if he wins, I think it’s [a] 75% chance that a Solana ETF could be trading within two quarters of the inauguration."

This would be a big win for the entire Solana ecosystem.

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Which celebrity coin do you think has a chance to stay around ?

So far nearly every one that has came out has been a rug / to take liquidity

Will it be Jason’s that stays?

Iggys?

Who u think

The first-ever talent Olympics is coming to solana ecosystem, it would be offering developers a chance to compete in frontend and Rust challenges for a $20K prize and potential six-figure job interviews with top Solana projects.

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Polymarket predictions says there is 80% chance that $DJT launched on Solana is not the official Trump coin.

$400k has already been wagered on the bet

LAST MARK! SALE #102 😂

In truth, tell yourself that this may be your last chance to grab good prices before the crypto explosion for the second part of the bullrun!

Ok, many of you are out of cash (Cash is King), but at least don't sell stupidly to the whales please. Now is not the time to break down...

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