6 days ago
Daily Memecoin Recap - September 12
Decent volume today as $sol starts to pick up
$420k + In LP Rewards
$dev -> hit $16 .7m
- Launch by ChartFuMonkey
- He's taking a more transparent angle to the launch
- Promises to disclose all supply allocations to KOLs
- Over $400k in rewards have been distributed to the top 50 holders pre bond
Usher Gets Hacked
$usher -> hit $1 .9m
$usher -> hit $416k
-
Usher got sim swapped, a bunch of fake usher coins came out on pumpfun
Solana's Pepe
$lumi -> hit $1 .59m
$lumio -> hit $1 .41m
- Posted by solana
, good narrative
Murad's Final Pick
$spx -> $7m to $19 .2m (2.74x), on eth
- MustStopMurad posts his final cult on his top 10 highest meme conviction list
- Murad has 2.8% of supply
- Price instantly pumped following his tweet
Moonshot Launches
$tmn -> hit $350k , Trumpmoon
$clique -> hit $337k , $25k in LP Rewards
Hyped Launches
$woofie -> $167k to $1 .64m (9.8x), dog meme
$dwolf -> hit $3 .49m, "Dark Wolf"
$towd -> hit $262k , toad meme
Fwog Art
$luci -> $8m , $99k in LP Rewards, launched on moonshotdotcc
$bwull -> hit $697k , $fwog + bull
$holi -> hit $240k
Slow Cooks
$abcde -> $840k to $4 .37m (5.2x), was going straight up for the past few weeks, seeing more of it on the timeline
$autism -> $389k to $1m (2.57x), launched on July 16, ATH $7 .3m
$gm -> $93k to $402k (4.3x), cat meme, launched 2 months ago, pushed today
More Plays
$moodeng -> $200k to $959k (4.8x), baby hippo
$fc -> hit $757k , Fishcopter, fish + helicopter, CTO, good volume
$stacy -> hit $600k , $giga stacy
$zaboo -> hit $483k , Zaboomafoo
$minmori -> hit $369k , dog meme, posted by gireumee
$cc -> hit $267k , "CubCat"
I'm personally a fan of this moonshot meta w/ LP rewards. Will be interesting to see how if they're able to update the top 50 holders post merge
Lock in๐
Decent volume today as $sol starts to pick up
$420k + In LP Rewards
$dev -> hit $16 .7m
- Launch by ChartFuMonkey
- He's taking a more transparent angle to the launch
- Promises to disclose all supply allocations to KOLs
- Over $400k in rewards have been distributed to the top 50 holders pre bond
Usher Gets Hacked
$usher -> hit $1 .9m
$usher -> hit $416k
-
Usher got sim swapped, a bunch of fake usher coins came out on pumpfun
Solana's Pepe
$lumi -> hit $1 .59m
$lumio -> hit $1 .41m
- Posted by solana
, good narrative
Murad's Final Pick
$spx -> $7m to $19 .2m (2.74x), on eth
- MustStopMurad posts his final cult on his top 10 highest meme conviction list
- Murad has 2.8% of supply
- Price instantly pumped following his tweet
Moonshot Launches
$tmn -> hit $350k , Trumpmoon
$clique -> hit $337k , $25k in LP Rewards
Hyped Launches
$woofie -> $167k to $1 .64m (9.8x), dog meme
$dwolf -> hit $3 .49m, "Dark Wolf"
$towd -> hit $262k , toad meme
Fwog Art
$luci -> $8m , $99k in LP Rewards, launched on moonshotdotcc
$bwull -> hit $697k , $fwog + bull
$holi -> hit $240k
Slow Cooks
$abcde -> $840k to $4 .37m (5.2x), was going straight up for the past few weeks, seeing more of it on the timeline
$autism -> $389k to $1m (2.57x), launched on July 16, ATH $7 .3m
$gm -> $93k to $402k (4.3x), cat meme, launched 2 months ago, pushed today
More Plays
$moodeng -> $200k to $959k (4.8x), baby hippo
$fc -> hit $757k , Fishcopter, fish + helicopter, CTO, good volume
$stacy -> hit $600k , $giga stacy
$zaboo -> hit $483k , Zaboomafoo
$minmori -> hit $369k , dog meme, posted by gireumee
$cc -> hit $267k , "CubCat"
I'm personally a fan of this moonshot meta w/ LP rewards. Will be interesting to see how if they're able to update the top 50 holders post merge
Lock in๐
15 days ago
๐ Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6:
$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF
Markets just took a turn ๐
What happened and where are we going?
Bull over? ๐
Heres what you need to know: ๐
๐จMarket Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)
https://www.tradingview.co.../
๐ #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
๐ #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
โฝ๏ธ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
https://www.tradingview.co.../
โ ๏ธ #btc bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
https://www.tradingview.co.../
๐ #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.
2k retest is on the horizon.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF
Markets just took a turn ๐
What happened and where are we going?
Bull over? ๐
Heres what you need to know: ๐
๐จMarket Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)
https://www.tradingview.co.../
๐ #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
๐ #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
โฝ๏ธ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
https://www.tradingview.co.../
โ ๏ธ #btc bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
https://www.tradingview.co.../
๐ #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.
2k retest is on the horizon.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Weekly Outlook Sep 2-6 (Breadth Indicators) for INDEX:MMTH by SolenyaResearch โ TradingView
In the top chart we have INDEX:MMTH which shows how many stocks are above their 200 D MA expressed as a percentage. When 70% or more of stocks are above their 200 D MA, it can be seen as over exuberance which can lead to a short term decline as investors take profits on riskier stocks to rotate in l..
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MMTH/pJU7vnfN-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-Breadth-Indicators/
18 days ago
๐ Weekly Outlook: September 2-6 ๐
Market News & Sentiment ๐ฐ
- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy ๐ค- Labor market weakness expected to continue ๐ผ
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 ๐ฃ๏ธ
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September ๐
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end ๐
Events This Week ๐
- Monday:
๐ฌ๐ง UK Manufacturing PMI ๐
- Tuesday:
๐บ๐ธ US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now ๐
- Wednesday:
๐ช๐บ EU Composite PMI, Services PMI ๐
๐จ๐ฆ CAD Interest Rate Decision ๐
๐บ๐ธ US Job Openings, Beige Book ๐
Earnings: Dollar Tree ๐
- Thursday:
๐บ๐ธ US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet ๐
- Friday:
๐ช๐บ EU GDP ๐
๐บ๐ธ US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment ๐
Earnings: Kroger ๐
Risk Appetite ๐ค
- Truflation: 1.55% ๐ฅ
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) ๐
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed ๐
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral ๐
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear ๐ฌ
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high ๐
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) ๐จ
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) โฌ๏ธ
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) โฌ๏ธ
Market Breadth ๐
- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) ๐
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) ๐
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) ๐
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 ๐
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 ๐
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 ๐
Other ๐
- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps ๐
Market News & Sentiment ๐ฐ
- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy ๐ค- Labor market weakness expected to continue ๐ผ
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 ๐ฃ๏ธ
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September ๐
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end ๐
Events This Week ๐
- Monday:
๐ฌ๐ง UK Manufacturing PMI ๐
- Tuesday:
๐บ๐ธ US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now ๐
- Wednesday:
๐ช๐บ EU Composite PMI, Services PMI ๐
๐จ๐ฆ CAD Interest Rate Decision ๐
๐บ๐ธ US Job Openings, Beige Book ๐
Earnings: Dollar Tree ๐
- Thursday:
๐บ๐ธ US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet ๐
- Friday:
๐ช๐บ EU GDP ๐
๐บ๐ธ US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment ๐
Earnings: Kroger ๐
Risk Appetite ๐ค
- Truflation: 1.55% ๐ฅ
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) ๐
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed ๐
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral ๐
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear ๐ฌ
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high ๐
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) ๐จ
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) โฌ๏ธ
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) โฌ๏ธ
Market Breadth ๐
- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) ๐
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) ๐
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) ๐
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 ๐
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 ๐
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 ๐
Other ๐
- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps ๐
24 days ago
๐ Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 26-30:
We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:
#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.co... ๐
#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.co.../ ๐
#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.co.../ ๐ก
#btc traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k . Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.
https://www.tradingview.co.../๐
#eth is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.
https://www.tradingview.co... ๐จ
We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:
#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.co... ๐
#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.co.../ ๐
#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.co.../ ๐ก
#btc traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k . Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.
https://www.tradingview.co.../๐
#eth is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.
https://www.tradingview.co... ๐จ
24 days ago
๐ Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts ๐
News/Sentiment: ๐
โข Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
โข High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
โข Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
โข Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: ๐
Mon:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
โข ๐ฉ๐ชGER: GDP
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: 5 year note auction
โข ๐ธ Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Jobless claims, GDP
โข ๐จ๐ณCNY: CPI
โข ๐ธ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
โข ๐ช๐บEUR: CPI
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: ๐ฌ
โข Truflation: 1.47%
โข Market fear/greed = 54
โข Market breadth = extreme greed
โข Put/call = greed
โข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โข AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
โข Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
โข High yield bond premium = 3.21%
โข High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: ๐
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
โข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
โข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
โข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: ๐
โข Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts ๐
News/Sentiment: ๐
โข Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
โข High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
โข Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
โข Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: ๐
Mon:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
โข ๐ฉ๐ชGER: GDP
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: 5 year note auction
โข ๐ธ Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Jobless claims, GDP
โข ๐จ๐ณCNY: CPI
โข ๐ธ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
โข ๐ช๐บEUR: CPI
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: ๐ฌ
โข Truflation: 1.47%
โข Market fear/greed = 54
โข Market breadth = extreme greed
โข Put/call = greed
โข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โข AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
โข Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
โข High yield bond premium = 3.21%
โข High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: ๐
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
โข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
โข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
โข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: ๐
โข Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
1 month ago
๐ Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23:
#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.
The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
#btc still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here
https://www.tradingview.co.../
#eth is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient
https://www.tradingview.co.../
#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.
The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
#btc still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here
https://www.tradingview.co.../
#eth is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient
https://www.tradingview.co.../
1 month ago
๐ Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: ๐
โข Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
โข Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
โข Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
โข Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
โข Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: ๐
Mon:
โข ๐ช๐บEUR: CPI, German PPI
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
โข ๐จ๐ฆCAD: CPI
โข ๐ฏ๐ตJPY: Exports, trade balance
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
โข Global PMI data
โข ๐ซ๐ทFR: Manufacturing/services PMI
โข ๐ฉ๐ชGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: ๐ฌ
โข Truflation: 1.42%
โข Market fear/greed = 40
โข Market breadth = neutral
โข Put/call = greed
โข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
โข AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
โข Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
โข High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
โข High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: ๐
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
โข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
โข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
โข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: ๐
โข Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: ๐
โข Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
โข Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
โข Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
โข Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
โข Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: ๐
Mon:
โข ๐ช๐บEUR: CPI, German PPI
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
โข ๐จ๐ฆCAD: CPI
โข ๐ฏ๐ตJPY: Exports, trade balance
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
โข Global PMI data
โข ๐ซ๐ทFR: Manufacturing/services PMI
โข ๐ฉ๐ชGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
โข ๐ธ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
โข ๐บ๐ธUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: ๐ฌ
โข Truflation: 1.42%
โข Market fear/greed = 40
โข Market breadth = neutral
โข Put/call = greed
โข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
โข AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
โข Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
โข High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
โข High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: ๐
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
โข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
โข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
โข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: ๐
โข Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
1 month ago
๐ Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data ๐ #GlobalRecession #USMarkets
๐ฌ News/Sentiment:
โข Fears of global recession
โข US markets slip over weakening economic data
โข Pessimism over Middle east tensions
โข Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
โข 78% probability of 50bps cut in September ๐
โข BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
โข Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months ๐
โข Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
โข Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
โข Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets ๐ #YenDollar #CarryTrades
๐ Events This Week (cont.):
โขTue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP
โขWed: US: Consumer Credit report
โขThu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate
๐ฌ Risk Appetite:
โข AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
โข Market fear/greed = 19
โข Market breadth = fear
โข Put/call = extreme fear
โข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โข Crypto fear/greed = 26
โขHigh yield bond prem. = 3.72%
๐ Market Breadth:
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
โข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
โข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
โข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data ๐ #GlobalRecession #USMarkets
๐ฌ News/Sentiment:
โข Fears of global recession
โข US markets slip over weakening economic data
โข Pessimism over Middle east tensions
โข Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
โข 78% probability of 50bps cut in September ๐
โข BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
โข Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months ๐
โข Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
โข Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
โข Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets ๐ #YenDollar #CarryTrades
๐ Events This Week (cont.):
โขTue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP
โขWed: US: Consumer Credit report
โขThu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate
๐ฌ Risk Appetite:
โข AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
โข Market fear/greed = 19
โข Market breadth = fear
โข Put/call = extreme fear
โข Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
โข Crypto fear/greed = 26
โขHigh yield bond prem. = 3.72%
๐ Market Breadth:
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
โข Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
โข NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
โข SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
โข SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)