Daily Memecoin Recap - September 16

Never a dull day in this space

Binance Unexpected Listing
$neiro -> $151m to $70 .83m (-45%)
$neiro -> $14 .9m to $180 .6m (12.1x), CTO Neiro
- After influencers were bragging about the $neiro listing, binance actually listed the OG CTO $neiro
- The market has now chosen their winner
- The one that was listed is the one that VitalikButerin
interacted with
- The influencer pushed one dumped, while the CTO one pumped +1300%

Neiro Related Coins
$neiro -> $5m to $9 .47m (1.89x), on $sol
$ginnan -> $209k to $4 .74m (22.6x), $doge 's brother, on $eth , there's another one sitting at $19m
$rintaro -> hit $1m , " $neiro 's twin brother "

Trump Spaces
$fight -> $3 .83m to $18 .57m (4.84x), on $eth
$djt -> $2 .2m to $10 .2m (4.63x), "TrumpCoin"
$fight -> $200k to $871k (4.35x), on $solworldlibertyfi

Runner Of The Week
$moodeng -> $3m to $7 .63m (2.54x), viral hippo, continues ot push

Fomo Launches A Token
$UwU -> hit $362k , good meme
- $35k + in LP Rewards
- Launched by fomomofosol
, one of the realest & most trusted in the space

Hyped Launches
$dwolf -> $2 .4m to $5 .6m (2.33x), secured exchange listings today
$mushy -> hit $4m

Moonshot
$dev -> $5 .63m to $10 .14m (1.8x),
ChartFuMonkey's coin, $556k + in LP Rewards
$luci -> $1 .31m to $4 .13m (3.15x), $121k + in LP Rewards
$jinx -> $130k to $293k (2.25x), $52k + in LP Rewards, good art
$wade -> hit $454k , good dev, random meme

More Cooks
$ball -> $183k to $1 .78m (9.73x), "Ball Up Top", viral meme
$flash -> hit $393k , cute dog, infinitely memeable
$SBCLTR -> hit $363k , "Subculture"
$larp -> hit $323k , "lame ass roleplaying posers", good ticker
$random -> hit $246k , cool concept, website generates a random image
$bwed -> hit $212k , bread meme
$zeus -> hit $210k , good art, pushed by KOLs
$fud -> hit $179k , good ticker
$wong -> hit $162k , CTO

Uptober soon?

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Imagine hating me but reading every few weeks/months that a corrupt police force find and steal from me MORE MONEY than you’ll make in your entire life.

Then tweeting that I’m poor “this time”.

😅😅.

Nobody can ever imagine how hilarious I find this.

If the government was a real business it would have been bankrupt a long time ago. The only thing keeping it going is the fact that people pay their taxes out of fear of going to jail if they don't (violence) and most importantly THE MAGIC MONEY PRINTER.

Further proof of the charade: the US government has hired 87,000 new agents to collect taxes with an average salary of 100k/year.

So this cost taxpayers $8 .7 billion and these agents managed to collect $1 .3 billion.

So, a deficit of -$7.4 billion... which will be paid by taxpayers. And of course the government will boast about having collected $1 .3 billion more in taxes.

How did we get here?

Magic Eden led NFT marketplaces with $56M in annual revenue, surpassing all competitors combined. 71% came from Bitcoin Ordinals (excluding Runes and BRC20), and 27% was driven by Solana.

Phantom, Solana’s most widely used wallet provider, has drawn criticism from some users for charging fees on in-app token swaps.

While some disgruntled community members attacked Phantom, voices across the Solana ecosystem came to the wallet’s defence. Reigniting debate around business models in the Web3 world, Phantom’s supporters argue that the platform has a right to generate revenue.

In an industry where meme coin presales can raise over $40M , is it fair to attack businesses providing essential services for charging easily avoidable fees?

SOLANA COMMUNITY MEMBERS COMPLAIN ABOUT 0.85% SWAP FEE
Frustrated Solana users have taken to 𝕏 to air their grievances about Phantom’s in-app swap fees. The public outrage came following circulation of data suggesting that the wallet provider generated over $30M in revenue through token swaps.

Comparisons between quotes between wallets and DEX aggregator Jupiter only added further fuel to the fire. Perhaps spurred on by stagnant market conditions, commentators on social media remarked that discrepancies between swaps provided by Phantom and Jupiter were “actually ridiculous.”

Eagle-eyed users remarked that the data wasn’t wholly accurate. Galactic Geckos founder Genuine Articles highlighted that the $30M figure was lower than expected, before Fabiano.sol, the influencer who originally shared the data, acknowledged that Phantom would’ve generated over $10M through in-app token swaps in 2021 alone.

While it’s obvious that traders can access better rates by using platforms like Jupiter directly, can Wallet providers be blamed for charging fees on value-added services?

Is the Slander Against Phantom Justified?
Content creator and former Phantom team member Seb Montgomery countered the attacks levied against Phantom. Arguing that every business has operational costs that need paid, Montgomery asserted that “Dapps, apps, wallets, etc. need revenue or they close up shop, and head home.”

Hammering his points home, Montgomery reminded Solana users of their double standards. The content creator highlighted how network participants were willing to provide over $40M to the $WATER memecoin presale, but criticized an 0.8% fee on services offered by one of Solana’s longest-standing products.

“You have probably lost $1000s on the pure rubbish. So don't be a clown and not support the wallets that make it all possible.” - Seb Montgomery

Montgomery also acknowledged that Solana owes much of its success to Phantom. Paying homage to Phantom’s position as Solana’s most widely used wallet, Montgomery asserted “Without Phantom, Solana's success would not have been anywhere near where it got to.”

WHICH WALLET GIVES THE BEST VALUE ON SWAPS?
While traders and users looking for the best rates should always go directly to decentralized exchanges or aggregators, it’s also worth knowing the various in-app swap rates of different wallets.

Fuse Wallet - 0%

Solflare - 0.8%

Phantom - 0.85%

Backpack - 0.85%

It should also be noted that all Solana wallets route their trades through Jupiter. Solana’s leading DEX aggregator typically offers the best rates on trades and allows third-party apps to add fees onto swaps.

Despite some traders expressing frustration, Phantom and other wallet providers have always been transparent and forthcoming about in-app swap fees. Using wallet-based swaps is completely optional and easily bypassed. Trader’s complaints are hardly unresolved.

Imagine this:

Went to the job, was giving 100% of myself.

Had only paid for half of month, and "boss" is ghosting me now.

It hurts, not the money part

But the way I got treated for what I was giving

📱❌ SpyAgent, the new threat specialized in cryptocurrency theft, seen in more than 280 Android applications...

McAfee's Mobile Research Team has discovered a new type of mobile malware that targets seed phrases by scanning your device for images that may contain them.

This Android malware cleverly disguises itself as various trustworthy applications, ranging from banking and government services to TV streaming and utility apps.

However, once installed, these fake apps secretly collect and send your text messages, contacts and all images stored on servers.

https://www.mcafee.com/blo.../

🧙 Bitcoin was not born by magic!

It was preceded by decades of research and failures before the 2008 revolution!

Magic Eden, Solana’s leading NFT marketplace by trading volume, has surprised network participants with an unexpected announcement.

On September 5, the crypto juggernaut revealed it would be splitting its trading platform into two separate sites, Magic Eden International and Magic Eden US.

The move has drawn skepticism from the wider community, who speculate that the regulatory landscape in the U.S. could impact user eligibility for Magic Eden’s highly-anticipated airdrop.

MAGIC EDEN'S U.S. USERS FEAR AIRDROP EXCLUSION
In the official announcement, Magic Eden posited that the U.S. site “will still have great products you know and love while .IO [the international site] will give us the ability to cook up (and sauté) even more features…”, suggesting that the U.S. platform will offer a limited range of services compared to its international equivalent.

Magic Eden users have expressed concerns that these limitations could extend to airdrop eligibility. Throughout the year, Solana users based in the United States have frequently found themselves unable to claim tokens due to geographic restrictions.

Due to regulatory concerns and the ongoing scrutiny of the SEC (Securities and Exchanges Commission), many crypto projects, like Sanctum and Grass, avoid distributing airdropped tokens to U.S. users.

Regulatory clarity around NFTs and digital assets were further exacerbated in late August, when the SEC issued a Wells notice to OpenSea, an alternative NFT marketplace.

Claiming that the platform facilitated the sale of unregistered securities, the notice serves as a preliminary warning and often precedes formal legal action.

In what could be considered a tongue-in-cheek gag, the official Magic Eden 𝕏 account also added a playful line to it’s bio, stipulating that “Tweets are only for non US Residents”.

SolanaFloor engaged the Magic Eden Foundation for clarity sounding the airdrop eligibility of its U.S. users. At press time, the Magic Eden Foundation declined to respond.

$ME TRADES AT.20 DESPITE LACK OF TOKENOMIC CLARITY
Since the initial announcement of the Magic Eden airdrop, pre-market trading for $ME has witnessed volatility. After opening at.08 on August 28, $ME pre-market prices rose as high as.24 before stabilizing at.20.

Despite attracting over $700 ,000 in trading volume, pre-market trading platform Whales Market has been criticized for opening a market for a coin with an unknown supply.

Without any publicly revealed tokenomics, pre-market traders are speculating on $ME at unknown valuations, which could lead to significant losses for participants.

COINGECKO NAMES MAGIC EDEN CRYPTO’S LARGEST NFT MARKETPLACE
Despite 2024’s NFT market suffering challenging conditions and diminishing volumes throughout the year, Magic Eden has managed to reassert its position as the industry’s top marketplace.

Coingecko, a popular cryptocurrency analysis site, recently declared Magic Eden as 2024’s top NFT marketplace. Boasting 36.7% market share, much of Magic Eden’s success this year could be credited to its adoption of the Bitcoin ecosystem, including its integration of Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and Runes.

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Come POP with us! POP POP

We are 180 days into a correction since we made an ATH in Bitcoin and market sentiment is worse than when BTC was at 15K.

Ethereum has lost nearly $250 billion in market cap over the summer, even with ETFs coming to market.

And what happened?

> Massive exits and sales by Grayscale.
> Massive MT.GOX distributions.
> Mass distributions from the United States.
> Germany selling +50,000 BTC.

And what is to come?

> US interest rate cuts.
> Gradual increase in global liquidity.
> United States elections.
> FTX Refunds (+$16B).

And all this with stablecoins reaching all-time highs.

Is this the end? Are we all going to die?

I don't believe it.

For me nothing has changed.

Nobody said the bull market was going to be easy.

The best, for me, is yet to come.

You already know what happened next, the times when the feeling was as shattered and terrifying as the one we are experiencing now.

The difficult moments are what separate babies with poop on their butts from legends.

Everyone is very pro, everyone is very cocky, very gangster and very brave until it is time to buy the dip when at all hours they say that we are going to visit lower areas and everyone is terrified and with their balls in their throat.

We've all heard "If you come down to X area I'm going to put my house in your house" then they come down and shit their pants and don't buy.

It seems like a meme, but it is not.

There is something that will never change.

> The vast majority of people will sell out of fear.
> The vast majority of people will buy out of euphoria.

And it is certainly the fastest way to lose money in this market.

Sorry, I didn't make up the rules of the game.

The road will be long and there will be monsters and corpses along the way, just try not to make it yours.

The bull market is not over.

They just want to steal your magic internet coins so that when they spend billions on marketing, they can buy them back at an exorbitant price.

Nothing has changed.

Patience, conviction, buy the dip & chill 🏝️

NFT marketplace Magic Eden has announced the launch of separate websites for international users and 🇺🇸 U.S. users. The move comes after OpenSea received an SEC Wells Notice.

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Today, many people do not invest in #Bitcoin because they believe it is supposedly too expensive.

👉 It's a bit like in 2017, when some people were saying: "The #btc is too expensive" when it was at $5 ,000.

But today, with $5 ,000, you only get 0.09 #btc . That is 11 times less than 7 years ago.

👉 Certainly, 1 #btc is now inaccessible for many. However, imagine in 2040, when 0.09 #btc will also be inaccessible.

🔷 In 2040, these same people will say: "If only I had bought 0.09 $BTC in 2024."

🔶 While in 2024, they were saying: "BTC is not worth it, it is already too expensive."

👉 Obviously, you are not going to make a x10 in a year, unlike some #altcoins . However, #Bitcoin is made to be kept.

This is why I tweeted a few days ago, saying that not having a single dollar of #btc in your wallet is a big mistake.

Some people did not understand this post, saying:

“It’s too expensive, we won’t make big multiples unlike altcoins, etc.”

However, at no point did I say that you had to be 100% on #Bitcoin , but simply have a little in your wallet.

Thank me in 15 years. 🚀

WhalesMarket lists $ME (MagicEden) on their pre-market trading platform.

$ME is currently trading at.10

BIG SUPPLY, BIG PROBLEMS AS SOLANA’S NFT MARKET REJECTS LARGE COLLECTIONS

Fresh minting mechanics are bringing greater security to Solana NFTs, but new mints and large collections struggle to garner attention and are trading below mint price.

New NFT collections have learned a painful lesson this week. If it wasn’t obvious due to stagnant floor prices and diminishing trade volume, launching a fresh collection in these conditions is a difficult task.

Despite commentators claiming these hyped collections will usher in a “new era” and whitelist spots selling at over $50 apiece on open markets, launches from Pathfinders and Hermans have failed to meet expectations.

Will Solana’s NFT market ever witness another successful 10,000 NFT collection? Or are small supplies the only way of conserving value?

ONLY 21% OF PATHFINDER'S RISK-FREE NFTs MINTED

Despite proposing a new, risk-free method of launching Solana NFTs, the Pathfinders collection faces difficulty minting out. At press time, only 2,125/10,000 NFTs have been minted, falling well short of expectations.

Pathfinder’s novel LST-backed NFT collection launched with noble intentions. Providing an alternative mechanic that aims to protect minters, the collection has launched Solana’s first un-ruggable NFTs.

Unlike standard NFT mints, Pathfinders NFTs are minted using pathSOL, the project’s native liquid staking token. Holders reserve the right to redeem their NFT for the underlying pathSOL used to mint the asset, essentially securing the NFT’s value at a minimum of 2pathSOL.

Regardless, Solana’s NFT community has largely ignored the project’s novel approach to minting. Supporters of the new mechanic took to social media to express their disappointment with the NFT community’s apparent apathy. 

Commentators noted that network participants have collectively poured thousands of SOL into extractive and malicious actors, but are unwilling to support builders providing meaningful alternatives.

‘Hyped’ New Mint Immediately Under Floor - Are Presales to Blame?

Boasting a sold-out presale that constituted 55% of the total supply, the Hermans NFT collection suffered a similar fate. Priced at 1.5 SOL per NFT, Hermans struggled to attract interest during the public mint, forcing the team to take drastic action.

Hermans trading on secondary marketplaces like Tensor and Magic Eden was locked until the mint was complete, meaning holders were unable to list their assets. The team took it upon themselves to buy all unminted assets. The Hermans’ treasury now holds over 1,600 NFTs, roughly 33% of the supply.

Almost immediately, the collection began trading beneath mint price as presales and regretful minters clamored to liquidate their holdings for SOL. Hermans currently exchange hands at 0.84 SOL, down 44% from the original mint price.

While poor NFT market conditions are a significant contributor to the recent slew of disappointing NFT launches, social media commentators have argued that NFT presales are also to blame.

Low Supply NFT Collections Retain Value

In recent years, NFT markets have witnessed countless large supply collections suffer devastating downtrends. 

Top Solana collections like Mad Lads, Tensorians (pictured), and Claynosaurs have all endured significant drawdowns, while dozens of less-resilient projects have effectively plummeted to zero.

Comparatively, low supply and 1/1 NFT collections have retained their value remarkably well. Limited supply art collections like Boogles, Dead King Society, and The SixNine are typically only available through OTC deals and have maintained comparatively stable floors, regardless of SOL price fluctuations.

Arguably, this suggests that the most valuable utility NFTs offer is access to exclusive communities. Alternatively, it could also indicate that low-supply collections with low market liquidity create an elite sense of perceived value, which has supported the valuations of these co

🚨 For the FIRST TIME in HISTORY the largest Central Banks have been reducing their Balance Sheets AT THE SAME TIME since the beginning of 2022 (Reducing market liquidity)

If now, starting with the FED 🇺🇸 , they "come to an agreement" and begin to INCREASE their assets, we could be facing one of the largest inflows of liquidity in HISTORY at a global level 🤔

Can you imagine what could happen to the price of #Bitcoin if this happens? 👀

🚨 Our space goes live in a few minutes !

We’re excited to bring together these incredible builders who also happen to be our partners.

📍 𝙇𝙤𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 : https://x.com/i/spaces/1br...

Our special guests include:

👉 Landlord Ronald @LANDLORD
👉 GME @GMEonSOL
👉 Magic Internet Money @MagicInternetMoney
👉 PengyOS @PengyOS_sol

Plus, there will be prizes to win! 👊

🚨 #BullPay New Listing Alert! 📈

$MIM is now listed as a payment method on BullPay @bullverse

You can now use Magic Internet Money to get paid for services, exclusive content, and digital products through BullPay!

🚨 The NFT marketplace Magic Eden announces the launch of its ME token, which will be possible to claim on MagicEdenWallet

https://x.com/mefndn/statu...

MagicEden an NFT marketplace has officially launched it's live crypto mobile wallet on both iOS and Android.

The project $FLUX will deploy its own AI solution 🤖 on August 20, operating thanks to the computing power provided by its FluxEdge network ⛏️

Completely FREE, the ChatBot can be used for personal and professional purposes.

Later, it will be possible to have API access so that developers can connect their Dapps to the network and benefit from its strength.

This is the first draft and "showcase" offered by the FluxEdge network (in which you can participate and receive rewards!!!)

Subsequently, AI models to generate images, videos, voice synthesizers, etc. are also planned and will expand the existing offering.

Even though I have no technical skills in this, I am looking forward to testing the system from a user perspective 🙌

Below, an example of the possibilities offered by the current version of the system ⤵️

https://x.com/dak_flux/sta...

🚨 Highlight of the interview between Elon Musk and Trump:

👉 The interview began with Elon Musk discussing a massive DDoS attack that severely disrupted and delayed the live broadcast, originally scheduled for 8 p.m. Musk said the incident clearly revealed the strong opposition to President Donald Trump's speech:

🔹 "This massive attack shows that there is a lot of opposition to people simply hearing what President Donald Trump has to say."

🔹 Elon Musk then found it fascinating that Thomas Crooks chose the most obvious location for an assassination attempt, although no one anticipated it.

🔹 “If the goal is to assassinate, what would be your favorite place? This building. This building would be number one,” Elon Musk remarked. Donald Trump agreed: “That would have been the most appropriate place.”

👉 Elon Musk then expressed his admiration for Trump's reaction to an assassination attempt. He praised the president's determination not to be defeated by this dramatic event, but to continue to fight with a firm will and a spirit of defiance.

🔹 “Your actions following this assassination attempt have been truly inspiring,” said Elon Musk.

👉 The conversation then turned to politics, with Donald Trump voicing scathing criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris for what he called blatant hypocrisy.

🔹 Donald Trump accused Harris of plagiarizing one of his proposals, that of abolishing taxes on tips, while at the same time supporting increased IRS surveillance of citizens' tips. He denounced this inconsistency by declaring: "These people are FAKES", highlighting the contrast between past actions and current positions.

🔹 Donald Trump recalled that the previous administration had hired 88,000 new IRS agents to closely monitor tips received by waitresses and carts. According to him, this policy was mainly aimed at increasing surveillance and imposing additional burdens on workers in these sectors.

🔹 However, Donald Trump pointed out that Harris had recently adopted his proposal to eliminate tip taxes, which he said illustrated political opportunism. He accused Harris of changing her position in response to political pressure, saying that the move was designed to improve her image and gain political advantage, while remaining at odds with the policies she previously supported.

👉 Elon Musk then expressed grave concern about the future of the United States if current border policies continue.

🔹 "I'm not sure we'll have a country anymore if open borders continue for four years," he warned.

🔹 Donald Trump added that if Kamala Harris were elected, it could lead to the arrival of 50 to 60 million people from various countries around the world.

🔹 “Inflation comes from government overspending because checks never bounce when they are written by the government,” Musk explained. He suggested the creation of a “government efficiency commission” to review and reduce wasteful spending, noting that interest payments on the national debt have now exceeded the defense budget, a situation that demands immediate action.

👉 Finally, Elon Musk addressed the subject of censorship, expressing harsh criticism towards Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner, whom he accuses of having tried to censor his conversation with Donald Trump.

🔹 Elon Musk referred to Breton's warning, who had said: "With a larger audience comes greater responsibility." This statement was perceived by Musk as an attempt to limit freedom of expression, which prompted him to react strongly.

🔹 To express his displeasure, Elon Musk shared a provocative meme addressed to Breton, asking him to “take a big step back and literally fuck off.” This reaction underlined his firm opposition to any form of censorship, especially when it seems to target freedom of expression on public platforms.

👉 Elon Musk then highlighted the way Donald Trump had handled freedom of expression during his first term.

💰 Metaplanet buys an additional $3 .4 million (500 million yen) worth of Bitcoin, bringing its holdings to 303 BTC acquired for $20 million

https://bitcoinmagazine.co...

BTC, yesterday there was a re-test of the 60,000 level, which could not be immediately returned. Let me remind you that a lot of important data will be released this week, with the help of which the market can turn around if there is good data. The right step is to wait for this news within a week, make an action plan, place limit orders and wait. There is no place to pour free fiat directly into the current ones. We also read the post above, which describes the local support levels.

the withdrawal from the exchanges exceeds the input - 18%, 1,200 btc

Altcoins, the situation is similar here. I keep a free fiat until the data is released. Yesterday, as we saw, most altcoins showed growth, as a result of a slight correction in the dominance of Bitcoin. Subject to a deeper correction of Bitcoin's dominance, one can imagine what percentages of growth altcoins can show. There is not much time left to recruit altcoins. The correction in the market cannot be eternal...The growth of altcoins is a matter of time.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Daily Memecoin Recap - August 12

Most of the attention was directed towards the Trump interview today

Donald Trump x Elon Musk
$grok2 -> $320k to $4 .55m (14x), grok2 beta coming soon
$fos -> hit $4m , "Freedom of Speech"
$rdt -> hit $2 .38m, "Real Donald Trump", realDonaldTrump

$elon -> hit $390k ,

$elontrump -> hit $2 .15m, Elon X Trump
$yeah -> hit $1 .89m, elonmusk
keeps saying "Yeah" on the spaces
$appie -> hit $860k , based on realDonaldTrump
's new promo video where there's a dog
$mcga -> hit $700k , "Make Crypto Great Again", MAGA + crypto, has been made before
$Trumpfish -> hit $630k , fish + Trump
$yea -> hit $466k
$ffa -> hit $350k , "Fight For America"
$doge -> hit $230k , "Donald Often Gags Elon"
- Elon Musk speaks with Donald Trump on X spaces

Dog Meta
$coby -> $200k to $1 .8m (9x)
$ken -> hit $11m , dog from Kabosu family ( $doge )
$kai -> hit $2 .9m, "Guardian of the crypto universe", based on a
binance tweet
$hi -> hit $400k
$toby -> hit $260k

Cat Memes
$lqc -> hit $966k , "low quality cat", CTO
$bae -> hit $250k , CTO

More Cooks
$kolt -> $2 .85m to $6 .44m (2.25x)
$dik -> $400k to $2m (5x from the low), very good team w/ unique content
$ponkei -> $160k to $1m (6.25x), Chinese $ponke
$one -> hit $1 .65m, "All It Takes Is One", good team
$quinn -> hit $400k
$chopy -> hit $315k , crab meme
$nwo -> hit $240k , "New World Order"

We had a couple good plays, expect more if majors pick back up

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My Macro take on crypto

#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.

Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.

Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Some more data that confirms my biases:

- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days

- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.

To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.