23 days ago
π Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
β’ Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
β’ Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
β’ Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
β’ Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI, German PPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
β’ π¨π¦CAD: CPI
β’ π―π΅JPY: Exports, trade balance
β’ πΈ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
β’ Global PMI data
β’ π«π·FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ π©πͺGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.42%
β’ Market fear/greed = 40
β’ Market breadth = neutral
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
β’ AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
β’ High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
β’ Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
β’ Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
β’ Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
β’ Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI, German PPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
β’ π¨π¦CAD: CPI
β’ π―π΅JPY: Exports, trade balance
β’ πΈ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
β’ Global PMI data
β’ π«π·FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ π©πͺGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.42%
β’ Market fear/greed = 40
β’ Market breadth = neutral
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
β’ AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
β’ High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
24 days ago
β οΈ This week we have one of the MOST IMPORTANT FED events πΊπΈ that will affect the price of #Bitcoin βΌοΈπ
Save this calendar to stay alert π
WEDNESDAY
- 20:00 CET: Publication of the minutes of #FOMC
THURSDAY
- 14:30: Weekly unemployment claims
- 15:45: S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI Indices
- 16:00: Start of the Jackson Hole Symposium (all day)
FRIDAY
- 16:00: Jerome Powell press conference at Jackson Hole
SATURDAY
- 16:00: Jackson Hole Symposium (all day)
π¨ The Jackson Hole event is going to be very important, many central banks and economic institutions are going to debate the current situation, and above all the most interesting thing will be on Friday with Jerome Powell
As always, I will keep you informed in real time about all this.
Save this calendar to stay alert π
WEDNESDAY
- 20:00 CET: Publication of the minutes of #FOMC
THURSDAY
- 14:30: Weekly unemployment claims
- 15:45: S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI Indices
- 16:00: Start of the Jackson Hole Symposium (all day)
FRIDAY
- 16:00: Jerome Powell press conference at Jackson Hole
SATURDAY
- 16:00: Jackson Hole Symposium (all day)
π¨ The Jackson Hole event is going to be very important, many central banks and economic institutions are going to debate the current situation, and above all the most interesting thing will be on Friday with Jerome Powell
As always, I will keep you informed in real time about all this.
1 month ago
US INTEREST RATE πΊπΈ
Yesterday's employment figures gave us a little breather after a red week...
To put it simply, the numbers showed that the job market is doing better than expected, which reduces the likelihood of a recession and therefore an urgent interest rate cut by the FED.
At this rate, we will even find a consensus that is counting on a single rate cut for the FOMC on September 18.
In short, for us, the main thing is to hope that the market holds up for Q4 because that is the launch pad moment for our second part of the bullrun.
Yesterday's employment figures gave us a little breather after a red week...
To put it simply, the numbers showed that the job market is doing better than expected, which reduces the likelihood of a recession and therefore an urgent interest rate cut by the FED.
At this rate, we will even find a consensus that is counting on a single rate cut for the FOMC on September 18.
In short, for us, the main thing is to hope that the market holds up for Q4 because that is the launch pad moment for our second part of the bullrun.
1 month ago
The summary of the news #crypto and US market
1) The United States debt has just crossed $35 ,000 billion (+280 billion per month since 2020)
2) Grayscale sold yesterday 210 million $ETHE , BlackRock bought +60 million, total net flow -98 million
3) Side #Bitcoin it is +200 million at BR for a net inflow of +124 million in total
4) The $BTC of the US government seized during the SilkRoad affair moved wallet yesterday (2 billion in value)
5) The Ta-Da application is available on iOS and Android
6) Aave offers a Lido stETH wstETH pool on its v3
7) Finary opens the possibility via its app to invest in #crypto for companies via their holding company
8) Coinbase's quarterly results will be revealed this Thursday (big week of results for some of the super 7s as well)
9) Tomorrow, Wednesday, the FOMC should set the tone regarding the rate cut by the FED expected by the market around mid-September 2024, some analysts are hoping for a first hammer cut of -0.5 while the base is expected to be - 0.25 points
10) Samara Cohen of BlackRock confirms that she has no immediate plans to launch an ETF $SOL
11) 21Shares have integrated Chainlink Proof of Reserved into their ETF for more transparency
12) The Cybertruck is the best-selling electric truck in the United States in Q2 2024, the stock $TSLA climbs back into the top 10 of the largest US caps
13) Pumpdotfun exceeded Ethereumβs 24-hour revenue yesterday
14) Qatar reconsiders its position on cryptos, in order to lift the ban and define a framework
15) The balance of ETF's spots on #Bitcoin now exceeds 50 billion
16) The halving $BTC took place 100 days ago
1) The United States debt has just crossed $35 ,000 billion (+280 billion per month since 2020)
2) Grayscale sold yesterday 210 million $ETHE , BlackRock bought +60 million, total net flow -98 million
3) Side #Bitcoin it is +200 million at BR for a net inflow of +124 million in total
4) The $BTC of the US government seized during the SilkRoad affair moved wallet yesterday (2 billion in value)
5) The Ta-Da application is available on iOS and Android
6) Aave offers a Lido stETH wstETH pool on its v3
7) Finary opens the possibility via its app to invest in #crypto for companies via their holding company
8) Coinbase's quarterly results will be revealed this Thursday (big week of results for some of the super 7s as well)
9) Tomorrow, Wednesday, the FOMC should set the tone regarding the rate cut by the FED expected by the market around mid-September 2024, some analysts are hoping for a first hammer cut of -0.5 while the base is expected to be - 0.25 points
10) Samara Cohen of BlackRock confirms that she has no immediate plans to launch an ETF $SOL
11) 21Shares have integrated Chainlink Proof of Reserved into their ETF for more transparency
12) The Cybertruck is the best-selling electric truck in the United States in Q2 2024, the stock $TSLA climbs back into the top 10 of the largest US caps
13) Pumpdotfun exceeded Ethereumβs 24-hour revenue yesterday
14) Qatar reconsiders its position on cryptos, in order to lift the ban and define a framework
15) The balance of ETF's spots on #Bitcoin now exceeds 50 billion
16) The halving $BTC took place 100 days ago
3 months ago
DXY (DOLLAR) πΊπΈ
The bane since last Wednesday during the last FOMC!
And yes, the FED has really hampered our plans.
For the moment cryptos are under great bearish pressure from the FOMC. But the S&P500 and NASDAQ are holding up. But be careful because if they start to correct it, we'll pay twice as much.
Afterwards, we can decorrelate this summer thanks to the ETH SPOT ETF but not sure...
So yes I am Bullish in the medium and long term as explained in previous tweets but in the short term I don't like it at all.
So do you think you'll see a Bull or Bear summer?
The bane since last Wednesday during the last FOMC!
And yes, the FED has really hampered our plans.
For the moment cryptos are under great bearish pressure from the FOMC. But the S&P500 and NASDAQ are holding up. But be careful because if they start to correct it, we'll pay twice as much.
Afterwards, we can decorrelate this summer thanks to the ETH SPOT ETF but not sure...
So yes I am Bullish in the medium and long term as explained in previous tweets but in the short term I don't like it at all.
So do you think you'll see a Bull or Bear summer?
3 months ago
Weekly Outlook June 10-14:
π¨Large amount of economic data this week. Expect volatility.π¨
News/Sentiment:
- Market is looking forward to CPI, PPI and FOMCπ
- high importance on FOMC on Wednesday and the post meeting statementπ
- Goldman Sachs are anticipating the first rate cut in Septemberπ°
- Markets anticipating a drop in UK jobs leading to BoE starting its rate cutting cycleπ
- Asia markets cautioned over BoJ reducing QEπΌ
π¨Large amount of economic data this week. Expect volatility.π¨
News/Sentiment:
- Market is looking forward to CPI, PPI and FOMCπ
- high importance on FOMC on Wednesday and the post meeting statementπ
- Goldman Sachs are anticipating the first rate cut in Septemberπ°
- Markets anticipating a drop in UK jobs leading to BoE starting its rate cutting cycleπ
- Asia markets cautioned over BoJ reducing QEπΌ
3 months ago
Daily Memecoin Recap - June 9
Even on slow days, there's ways to capitalize
Remember to take some days off & enjoy life
IRL fight club
$mma -> hit $5 .5m, have a look at their twitter account lol
$daddy -> hit $20 .4m,
has been liking their tweets, which sent it flying. Tate holds 40% of supply
$freeryan -> hit $3 .5m, Tate tweeted and deleted "Free Ryan Garcia"
Iggy Azalea's brother makes a twitter account
$brother -> hit $693k , new one
FOMC & CPI coming up this week
Going to be a volatile week for traditional markets, let's see how crypto reacts
Even on slow days, there's ways to capitalize
Remember to take some days off & enjoy life
IRL fight club
$mma -> hit $5 .5m, have a look at their twitter account lol
$daddy -> hit $20 .4m,
has been liking their tweets, which sent it flying. Tate holds 40% of supply
$freeryan -> hit $3 .5m, Tate tweeted and deleted "Free Ryan Garcia"
Iggy Azalea's brother makes a twitter account
$brother -> hit $693k , new one
FOMC & CPI coming up this week
Going to be a volatile week for traditional markets, let's see how crypto reacts
