GM from $POPDOG

GM fam

GN everybody! Now have a nice rest to have a great day tomorrow:)

GM

While we were buying the dip, it's so beautiful here. Take a break from business and relax with the sound of rain.

GM crypto fam

SOL just made a full recovery against the Ethereum from a recent market crash, now inching closer to an All-Time High

SOL/ETH pair up 8%

$6 .4 trillion has been wiped out of the global stock market in just 4 weeks.

- Bloomberg

NFT.Storage now supports NFTs on Solana, offering creators a one-time backup fee model, powered by IPFS and Filecoin.

Anchorage Digital Bank introduces custody and staking support for solana's SPL tokens, expanding institutional access to the Solana ecosystem.

(Anchorage - Only federally chartered crypto bank in the 🇺🇲US serving as a custodian for banks, governments, etc.)

Solana DePins Rally Over 30% While TradFi Platforms Suffer Outages - A Sign of the Future

DePin tokens like SHDW, RENDER, and HONEY bounced hard after chaotic market dynamics sent crypto prices tumbling.

Solana DePINs (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) once again proved their worth. Showing resilience in the face of bearish market forces, DePIN tokens have enjoyed a powerful resurgence from local bottoms, indicating strong demand.

Moreover, infrastructure outages across the world of traditional finance lend further credibility to DePINs and other decentralized services.

On August 4th, Solana surpassed all other Layer-1 chains combined in daily non-voting transactions.

Be careful to the trap

The market green again.

Is this a recovery or a fake-out?

AMA with mad_apes !

AMA coming soon with mad_apes (https://t.me/mad_apes) !

📍 Where:
mad_apes

📅 When: Wednesday 6 PM UTC
🔈 https://t.me/mad_apes

$POPDOG is cooking ! Come hype with us tomorrow ! Pop Pop Pop

🚨 BlackRock files application with SEC to allow options trading on its Ethereum spot ETF

I sell it all😎

Do you have your tickets yet for the Dog Cruise led by $POPDOG ? 💪💪🐶🐶 🤣🤣🤣

📑 Binance releases its 21st Proof of Reserve.

BTC user assets stand at 613,471, up 1.29% from July 1.

ETH user assets are 4.701 million, down 0.21%.

USDT user assets are 21.19 billion, down 1.52%.

#binance recorded a net inflow of $3 .27 billion over the past month

Red tide 😔😔

📊 Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data 📉 #GlobalRecession #USMarkets

😬 News/Sentiment:
• Fears of global recession
• US markets slip over weakening economic data
• Pessimism over Middle east tensions
• Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
• 78% probability of 50bps cut in September 📉
• BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
• Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months 📊
• Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
• Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
• Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets 📉 #YenDollar #CarryTrades

📅 Events This Week (cont.):

•Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP

•Wed: US: Consumer Credit report

•Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate

😬 Risk Appetite:
• AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
• Market fear/greed = 19
• Market breadth = fear
• Put/call = extreme fear
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• Crypto fear/greed = 26
•High yield bond prem. = 3.72%

📊 Market Breadth:
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)

Gonna have that in mind 👀

Weekly Outlook Charts: August 5-9:

#DXY Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.

Weekly: https://www.tradingview.co.../

Daily: Solid rejection off 106/107 level instills confidence of further downside to target.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎯Target at 97 remains.

Doesnt lower DXY mean gains for risk assets like crypto? Not quite..

Where I was wrong about DXY and why: Historically speaking, DXY strength correlates well with economic activity. A strong dollar is good for markets because it signals we are headed in the right direction. Economy > earnings > stock prices. However, more recently as we've seen in 2022 and 2023, a stronger dollar had a negative affect on equities - mainly risk assets such as cryptos. This was because of deleveraging of global liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening. Interest rates were climbing at a record pace to stop inflation, while making the risk free rate (bond yields) more rewarding than most high growth companies. Growing a company became much more difficult when compared to low rate environments. Good news was bad news for the market.

The market reaction of recent economic data indicates a possible turning point for bad news being bad for the market. So even though , DXY is still on track to its forecast from months prior, risk assets may not perform as expected. We must look at other factors outside of DXY strength - as I normally do - to gauge whether upside on cryptos are worth while...

Yield Curve Inversions:
For the first time since June 2022, the yield curve has hit 0%. After spending a record time inverted, there are signs the yield curve is finally re-inverting back to normal. The re-inversion usually causes the most damage to markets as a recession hits, and growth stagnates.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs the S&P 500.
https://www.tradingview.co.../

Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (https://fred.stlouisfed.or...)

However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.

#US10Y
Below shows the yield curve vs gold.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

🎯Target for 3000

As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.

Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.

Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market

My Macro take on crypto

#btc on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle is not yet done.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.

Image below shows historical dates of mid cycle top/bottoms, and cycle tops/bottoms with dates of halving as well. We were at the mid-cycle top earlier this spring - represented by the purple dot in Cycle 4. If historical data suggests any clues on market cycle top, Q4 2025 would be the date.

Furthermore, the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2 cycles which had 1450 days between cycle tops. More data suggests Q4 2025 cycle top as the last 2 cycles took 1060 days from cycle bottom to cycle peak.

https://www.tradingview.co.../

Some more data that confirms my biases:

- Average Number of days btc spent above 20 W EMA (last 2 cycles) = 802 days
- This cycle so far = 413 Days

- Number of days btc spent above 200 D MA (last 2 cycles) = 787 days
- This cycle so far = 462 Days.

To sum things up: the data suggests we still have about a year of bull market activity lined up. I'd say Q2 2025 cycle top is conservative given the macro environment. The Sahm Rule and other leading indicators of recession has me worried about the 2nd half of 2025. Economic data is almost always lagging and whether we are in a recession today or not, we will not know until 2 quarters from now. That being said, if Sahm Rule holds true and we enter recession in Q4, we won't know until at least Q2.

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BTC wrote yesterday that the market needs to recover within a week or two. I think this is an extremely important point. There is also a breakdown of the key resistance zone of 70,000-73,000 and even higher. All this needs to be done within these deadlines. The market has been in flat or correction for quite a long time, at the current it has been 5 months. The edge is 6 months. Whales have accumulated and bought more than 404,000 Bitcoins recently, on the drain the day before yesterday, there were purchases from whales, there were large deposits on Fiat Exchanges to buy off this strait. More than $ 1.2 billion was placed on the Binance Exchange alone. The hash rate of Bitcoin has recovered, as well as reached new highs. This is a positive moment for the start of a new cycle. A kind of indicator.

the withdrawal from the exchanges exceeds the input - 4%, 1,700 btc

Altcoins, as well as the story about Altcoins, the restoration of which is necessary within a week or two. Let me remind you that altcoins have been in flat or correction for the 5th month.
This has been going on for at least a long time and is approaching the term recession. August and September will be key for Altcoins! It won't be long, patience is a profit!

https://www.tradingview.co.../