8 days ago
π Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6:
$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF
Markets just took a turn π
What happened and where are we going?
Bull over? π
Heres what you need to know: π
π¨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)
https://www.tradingview.co.../
π #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
π #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
β½οΈ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
https://www.tradingview.co.../
β οΈ #btc bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
https://www.tradingview.co.../
π #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.
2k retest is on the horizon.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
$BTC $SOL $ETH $WIF
Markets just took a turn π
What happened and where are we going?
Bull over? π
Heres what you need to know: π
π¨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)
https://www.tradingview.co.../
π #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
π #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
β½οΈ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
https://www.tradingview.co.../
β οΈ #btc bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
https://www.tradingview.co.../
π #eth still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.
2k retest is on the horizon.
https://www.tradingview.co.../
Weekly Outlook Sep 2-6 (Breadth Indicators) for INDEX:MMTH by SolenyaResearch β TradingView
In the top chart we have INDEX:MMTH which shows how many stocks are above their 200 D MA expressed as a percentage. When 70% or more of stocks are above their 200 D MA, it can be seen as over exuberance which can lead to a short term decline as investors take profits on riskier stocks to rotate in l..
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MMTH/pJU7vnfN-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-Breadth-Indicators/
11 days ago
π Weekly Outlook: September 2-6 π
Market News & Sentiment π°
- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy π€- Labor market weakness expected to continue πΌ
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 π£οΈ
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September π
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end π
Events This Week π
- Monday:
π¬π§ UK Manufacturing PMI π
- Tuesday:
πΊπΈ US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now π
- Wednesday:
πͺπΊ EU Composite PMI, Services PMI π
π¨π¦ CAD Interest Rate Decision π
πΊπΈ US Job Openings, Beige Book π
Earnings: Dollar Tree π
- Thursday:
πΊπΈ US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet π
- Friday:
πͺπΊ EU GDP π
πΊπΈ US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment π
Earnings: Kroger π
Risk Appetite π€
- Truflation: 1.55% π₯
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) π
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed π
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral π
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear π¬
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high π
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) π¨
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) β¬οΈ
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) β¬οΈ
Market Breadth π
- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) π
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) π
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) π
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 π
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 π
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 π
Other π
- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps π
Market News & Sentiment π°
- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy π€- Labor market weakness expected to continue πΌ
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 π£οΈ
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September π
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end π
Events This Week π
- Monday:
π¬π§ UK Manufacturing PMI π
- Tuesday:
πΊπΈ US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now π
- Wednesday:
πͺπΊ EU Composite PMI, Services PMI π
π¨π¦ CAD Interest Rate Decision π
πΊπΈ US Job Openings, Beige Book π
Earnings: Dollar Tree π
- Thursday:
πΊπΈ US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet π
- Friday:
πͺπΊ EU GDP π
πΊπΈ US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment π
Earnings: Kroger π
Risk Appetite π€
- Truflation: 1.55% π₯
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) π
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed π
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral π
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear π¬
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high π
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) π¨
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) β¬οΈ
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) β¬οΈ
Market Breadth π
- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) π
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) π
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) π
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 π
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 π
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 π
Other π
- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps π
17 days ago
π Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts π
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
β’ High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
β’ Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
β’ Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
β’ π©πͺGER: GDP
β’ πΊπΈUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: 5 year note auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Jobless claims, GDP
β’ π¨π³CNY: CPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI
β’ πΊπΈUS: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.47%
β’ Market fear/greed = 54
β’ Market breadth = extreme greed
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.21%
β’ High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts π
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
β’ High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
β’ Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
β’ Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
β’ π©πͺGER: GDP
β’ πΊπΈUS: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: 5 year note auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Jobless claims, GDP
β’ π¨π³CNY: CPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI
β’ πΊπΈUS: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.47%
β’ Market fear/greed = 54
β’ Market breadth = extreme greed
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.21%
β’ High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
23 days ago
π Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
β’ Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
β’ Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
β’ Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
β’ Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI, German PPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
β’ π¨π¦CAD: CPI
β’ π―π΅JPY: Exports, trade balance
β’ πΈ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
β’ Global PMI data
β’ π«π·FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ π©πͺGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.42%
β’ Market fear/greed = 40
β’ Market breadth = neutral
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
β’ AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
β’ High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: π
β’ Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
β’ Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
β’ Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
β’ Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
β’ Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: π
Mon:
β’ πͺπΊEUR: CPI, German PPI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
β’ π¨π¦CAD: CPI
β’ π―π΅JPY: Exports, trade balance
β’ πΈ Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
β’ πΈ Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX , Target $TGT
Thu:
β’ Global PMI data
β’ π«π·FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ π©πͺGER: Manufacturing/services PMI
β’ πΈ Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
β’ πΊπΈUS: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: π¬
β’ Truflation: 1.42%
β’ Market fear/greed = 40
β’ Market breadth = neutral
β’ Put/call = greed
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
β’ AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
β’ High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
β’ High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: π
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: π
β’ Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
1 month ago
π Weekly Outlook August 5-9:
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data π #GlobalRecession #USMarkets
π¬ News/Sentiment:
β’ Fears of global recession
β’ US markets slip over weakening economic data
β’ Pessimism over Middle east tensions
β’ Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
β’ 78% probability of 50bps cut in September π
β’ BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
β’ Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months π
β’ Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
β’ Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
β’ Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets π #YenDollar #CarryTrades
π Events This Week (cont.):
β’Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP
β’Wed: US: Consumer Credit report
β’Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate
π¬ Risk Appetite:
β’ AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
β’ Market fear/greed = 19
β’ Market breadth = fear
β’ Put/call = extreme fear
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 26
β’High yield bond prem. = 3.72%
π Market Breadth:
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)
Fears of global recession, US markets slip over weakening economic data π #GlobalRecession #USMarkets
π¬ News/Sentiment:
β’ Fears of global recession
β’ US markets slip over weakening economic data
β’ Pessimism over Middle east tensions
β’ Rumors of Jump Trading shutting down crypto operations
β’ 78% probability of 50bps cut in September π
β’ BofA believe employment numbers are over exaggerated
β’ Sahm rule triggered; 10/11 chance of recession in 4 months π
β’ Poor earnings, negative revisions and general pessimist outlook for earning season
β’ Harris' recent success in polls having negative impact on cryptos
β’ Yen-dollar carry trades unwinding, negatively affecting global markets π #YenDollar #CarryTrades
π Events This Week (cont.):
β’Tue: AUD: Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, US: Fed GDP now #AUDRate #FedeGDP
β’Wed: US: Consumer Credit report
β’Thu: India: Interest rate Decision, US: Jobless claims, Fed Balance Sheet #ConsumerCredit #IndiaRate
π¬ Risk Appetite:
β’ AAII sentiment: 7% off 1 year bullish high (as of last week)
β’ Market fear/greed = 19
β’ Market breadth = fear
β’ Put/call = extreme fear
β’ Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
β’ Crypto fear/greed = 26
β’High yield bond prem. = 3.72%
π Market Breadth:
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 55% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 49% (Decrease from last week)
β’ Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 30% (decrease from last week)
β’ NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -90
β’ SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-291
β’ SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 44 ; Weekly 4
Fed rate monitor tool = 95% probability of 25bps cut next meeting, 78% chance of 50bps (September 18th)
2 months ago
Daily Memecoin Recap - July 12
This week, volume was overall much better than last week. We had multiple million dollar runners
Play On Words Meta
$mob -> hit $8m , "money over bitches"
$wif -> hit $3 .3m, "wallahi I'm finished", CTO by some big names in the space
$mia -> hit $920k , "missed it again"
$btc -> hit $575k , "buy this cat"
- Fire meta
Make More Bread
$bread -> hit $1 .78m, just a loaf of bread
Cat Meta
$mongy -> $3 .56m to $11 .28m (3.17x), team continues to push
$bub -> $1 .26m to $4 .1m (3.25x), CTO based on a viral cat
$cult -> hit $1 .8m
$sad -> hit $870k , $relax dev (hit $1 .8m), heavily sniped once it hit raydium, KOLs involved
$smol -> hit $490k
Matt Furie Memes
$ducky -> hit $3 .6m
$floppy -> hit $970k , Matt Furie type meme
$mikkey -> hit $870k , "girls club", beta to Matt_Furie's "boys club"
More Cooks
$orc -> $2 .14m to $5 .72m (2.67x), based on Davincij15's tweet, bitget listing announced
$retiredio -> $54k to $400k (7.4x), $retardio beta, CTO
$bro -> hit $4 .3m, CTO led by trusted people, dog meme
$sigma -> hit $3m
$beast -> hit $2 .86m, coin based on MrBeast (not actually related to him)
$rent -> hit $994k , $landlord beta, launched on dexscreener's moonshot
$psyop -> hit $800k , vc chaotic asf, website links to CIA lol
$fade -> hit $260k , CTO, good meme
I miss seeing true communities form out of these memes
Weekends are for touching grass
Did you cook? π
This week, volume was overall much better than last week. We had multiple million dollar runners
Play On Words Meta
$mob -> hit $8m , "money over bitches"
$wif -> hit $3 .3m, "wallahi I'm finished", CTO by some big names in the space
$mia -> hit $920k , "missed it again"
$btc -> hit $575k , "buy this cat"
- Fire meta
Make More Bread
$bread -> hit $1 .78m, just a loaf of bread
Cat Meta
$mongy -> $3 .56m to $11 .28m (3.17x), team continues to push
$bub -> $1 .26m to $4 .1m (3.25x), CTO based on a viral cat
$cult -> hit $1 .8m
$sad -> hit $870k , $relax dev (hit $1 .8m), heavily sniped once it hit raydium, KOLs involved
$smol -> hit $490k
Matt Furie Memes
$ducky -> hit $3 .6m
$floppy -> hit $970k , Matt Furie type meme
$mikkey -> hit $870k , "girls club", beta to Matt_Furie's "boys club"
More Cooks
$orc -> $2 .14m to $5 .72m (2.67x), based on Davincij15's tweet, bitget listing announced
$retiredio -> $54k to $400k (7.4x), $retardio beta, CTO
$bro -> hit $4 .3m, CTO led by trusted people, dog meme
$sigma -> hit $3m
$beast -> hit $2 .86m, coin based on MrBeast (not actually related to him)
$rent -> hit $994k , $landlord beta, launched on dexscreener's moonshot
$psyop -> hit $800k , vc chaotic asf, website links to CIA lol
$fade -> hit $260k , CTO, good meme
I miss seeing true communities form out of these memes
Weekends are for touching grass
Did you cook? π
